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How Election Nerd Allan Lichtman Came Up With A Foolproof Way Of Predicting The President | Digg
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'hinges on 13 keys'

Allan Lichtman's Foolproof Way Of Predicting The Next American President, Explained

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Allan Lichtman's Foolproof Way Of Predicting The Next American President, Explained
Allan Lichtman and Vladimir Keilis-Borok's prediction model is based on numerous "keys" and over a century's worth of election data. Here's why he thinks America's next President is going to be Kamala Harris.
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Via New York Times.

Comments

  1. Eric Jorgensen 20 hours ago

    This is why people need to take statistics. Let's pretend that 1000 monkeys make random predictions of 10 presidential elections. We can expect that one of these monkeys will guess all 10 correctly. Now pretend that the NYT has chosen to interview thIs monkey to predict the next election.

    1. Jason V Brock 19 minutes ago

      From your comment it appears you don't understand how statistics work, either.

  2. Unknown 23 hours ago

    This guy is a grifter and a hack.

    https://thepostrider.com/allan-lichtman-is-famous-for-correctly-predicting-the-2016-election-the-problem-he-didnt/

    1. Jason V Brock 20 minutes ago

      Trying to comment as an anonymous entity undermines your point. I don't trust strangers on the Internet. So your opinion is invalid.

  3. K J 1 day ago

    I have a better way. The answer is in demography. Most polls do a decent job of summarizing the results from their sample. However, when it comes to their sample, they typically don't do so well. Any poll is only as good as the sample it is derived from. Look at Pennsylvania. The polls say Harris and Trump are in a heat. Most of them are not representative of the state's voter population. How much they lean towards Harris is an open question but the polls that are more representative of the voter population have Trump ahead by 2 to 3 points. The same exists with North Carolina and Georgia. This of course means Trump is in the drivers seat, like it or not.

  4. Sevan 1 day ago

    For the sake of this country and our Democracy, I hope to God he's right !

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