Please please please everybody do the right thing.
posted by whatevernot at 3:15 AM on November 5 [29 favorites]

I just want to tell you all: USA, good luck. We're all counting on you.
posted by chavenet at 3:17 AM on November 5 [122 favorites]

This is a FANTASTIC post, well done.
posted by saladin at 3:22 AM on November 5 [44 favorites]

I don't know if I mentioned this in one of the other threads, but I was shocked to see Randall Terry (of Operation Rescue infamy) on my sample ballot. I guess for people who think the Republicans don't go far enough?
posted by mittens at 3:22 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

*cough cough*

Sorry that I startled you there, America. I have been asked by the world to bring you a message.

How long have I been standing in the corner watching you? Longer than is healthy for either of us to know.

Anyway, the other nations got together and we talked. Well, almost everybody. We sent Russia an invite with the date November 6th.

I should say that the UK is here in body but not spirit, just staring in the distance, muttering to themselves, and isn't responding to anything we say. Apparently they looked deep into their own soul in the last few years and saw some dark shit. We could've told'em, but sometimes you need to find things out for yourself.

The rest of us huddled together and agreed on a message we all could sign off on. **Glares at Hungary and makes a shushing motion**

Ahem. **Reaches into backpocket and pulls out a folded piece of paper, reads**

"Dear America. Please allow us the luxury of not thinking about you for the next four years and, ideally, for the next forever years. Also, vote for the one who can dance, please."

Well, I guess that's it, and now… **Glances off to the side** Apparently the UK has its own special message. **Takes a piece of paper from the UK, unfolds it* Huh, it's a drawing of… what, exactly? *Stares quizzically, turns it ninety degrees, drops the piece of paper with a startled look**

Uhh… no need to debase yourself like that to get your special relationship back.

Later tonight I'll be off to an election night party that Zambia's hosting. The music will be nothing but bangers, and we're hoping to dance ourselves into exhaustion, wake up tomorrow, glance once at our phones, and never think about your politics ever again. But until I fuck off, hopefully forever, I'll just stand here in the corner.

**Stares**

Oh, and you'll probably want to burn that drawing the UK made, without looking at it, not even glance, okay. Healthier for everyone that way.

**Stands in corner, staring**
posted by Kattullus at 3:33 AM on November 5 [76 favorites]

Note to anyone who hasn't voted yet - don't forget to check all the downballot stuff, and take a moment to check any of the proposals. I used Ballotpedia to check my full vote before I voted early; then spent about two minutes looking into some of the proposals I would be voting on. If I'd gone in blind I'd have supported them, but after only two minutes I realized that some of them would have been a big mistake (the "increase the powers of the Dept. of Sanitation" proposal sounded okay, but then I saw someone point out that it would extend to Sanitation crews cracking down on street food vendors and realized oh, wait, this is the mayor trying to be a dick).
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:37 AM on November 5 [20 favorites]

Seems crazy to have to say this where any first world country's election is concerned, but I hope it all goes peacefully today.

From 2020's campaign and still a great song: Actually Vote

Here's a word from Hotel Fred.
posted by Paul Slade at 3:40 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

chavenet: I just want to tell you all: USA, good luck. We're all counting on you.

I’m having the lasagna. Let’s do this.
posted by dr_dank at 3:43 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]

I'm going to link to the 2016 Metafilter Election Night Megathread as a corrective. About the time Trump was steamrolling to victory, someone in that thread commented: "everyone on this website assured me this was a lock for Hillary." I have never forgotten that.

For the past eight years, I have always thought of the epistemic closure that made reading that thread like watching a car crash in slow motion. Don't get cocky.

My prediction, having closely followed the election: Trump wins the electoral college with around 290 EC votes and Harris ekes out a tiny popular vote victory.
posted by fortitude25 at 3:45 AM on November 5 [17 favorites]

...and may God save the United States of America [from itself].
posted by wenestvedt at 3:49 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]

Please let me stop thinking about Tr*mp again.
posted by h00py at 3:52 AM on November 5 [28 favorites]

I'll be working the Geocode hotline for my local county election services all day...
posted by schyler523 at 3:53 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

Anything that gives the disgustingly corrupt “Trump is not a fascist” NYC Mayor Adams any extra political power is a hard NO for me this year, so all of the ballots after number one can wait until he is in jail. Doubly so with the attempt to crack down on the local street vendors…
posted by rambling wanderlust at 3:53 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]

I used Ballotpedia to check my full vote before I voted early; then spent about two minutes looking into some of the proposals I would be voting on. If I'd gone in blind I'd have supported them, but after only two minutes I realized that some of them would have been a big mistake

Seconding this. The language of some proposals/amendments etc. which appear on ballots can be really deceptive. The ad campaigns for or against them even more so.
posted by Foosnark at 4:05 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]

Here's what I hope happens: Harris wins and Trump loses. All his rallies and speeches and media tours just...stop. MAGA people, over the next few months, start to forget about Donald as he is seen less and less often in public, and when he does it excites very few.

The best part is I don't have to ever think about Donald Trump again. Maybe in a year or so it'll be in the news that Trump was convicted and sentenced to prison for his voluminous crimes, and I'll say "Well, how about that. They did actually manage to put him in jail." And I'll go back to whittling a birdhouse or whatever.
posted by zardoz at 4:10 AM on November 5 [49 favorites]

I got caught with a half gram of cocaine on me 20 years ago, so I’m not allowed to have a voice ever again, but hopefully all y’all made up for it.
posted by HVACDC_Bag at 4:18 AM on November 5 [62 favorites]

I read this post in the voice of a "Previously on..." summary. Then I threw it into the Star Wars Intro Creator, and goddamn if it didn't give me chills.
posted by Molesome at 4:21 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]

The best part is I don't have to ever think about Donald Trump again. Maybe in a year or so it'll be in the news that Trump was convicted and sentenced to prison for his voluminous crimes

His sentencing for falsifying business records is still scheduled for Nov. 26. That's my birthday, and I know exactly what I want for my birthday.
posted by Foosnark at 4:29 AM on November 5 [35 favorites]

Kamala wins, full stop, and tonight we are having orange chicken for dinner. Let’s go!
posted by mochapickle at 4:29 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]

Voted early. By mail, but I dropped it off in a secured ballot box. But I'm in a Deep Blue city in a solidly Blue state.

First time I have ever voted early, but I just could not imagine myself waiting to vote until today.

“Poo-tee-weet?”
posted by SoberHighland at 4:30 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]

I have nothing to contribute beyond what busted_crayons said.

(exchanges a glance with Kattullus over in the other corner; sighs, a little wearily, and goes back to trying forlornly to persuade own government to stop dumping more coal and gas on the fire consuming us all)
posted by flabdablet at 4:30 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

My local betting agency has 2.5x payout for Harris, 1.6x payout for Trump.

Is she really that much of an underdog? I'll take them up on that (I put $50 on Harris). Manifesting positive energy for everyone over in the US!
posted by xdvesper at 4:37 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

I'm now back from my local polling place. They replaced the touchscreens-and-weird-box-things I didn't like last time, with a new touchscreens-and-piece-of-paper thing I also didn't like. At least there's a 50% chance that I'll never have to vote again.
posted by mittens at 4:38 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]

Thanks for this post. Also, thank you to everyone who's been volunteering and working to make this election as safe and as fair as it can be.
posted by mixedmetaphors at 4:39 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]

I’ll talk to y’all tomorrow.
posted by Thorzdad at 4:39 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]

I would like to take this moment to suggest that the Democratic Party eliminate the months-long primary/caucus process. Harris has shown that we don’t need it and it’s a massive waste of money.

Start the primaries in June and wrap them up by the end of July. Nominate a candidate in August and run a national campaign to November.

God knows that’s long enough.
posted by Big Al 8000 at 4:40 AM on November 5 [49 favorites]

I think (hope) people that are into betting as a “market indicator” are much more likely to trend rightward.
posted by Jon_Evil at 4:40 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]

Fascism is bad. Vote accordingly. Empires are also bad. So is aristocracy. Where possible, also vote accordingly.

Good luck to us all.

Except the fascists.
posted by JohnFromGR at 4:44 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]

Godspeed, everyone. As a Canadian with strong ties to the US, I really really hope that USA does not return to the chaos and Fascism.
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 4:46 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

Hey, it only took 40 or so years for Germany to get back on its feet!

/s
posted by SoberHighland at 4:48 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]

Go vote(if you haven’t already), and take your friends! Then , deep breaths. I’m doing a social media and politics free zone dinner tonight from 6:30-9ish. The world will still be there when I’m done and at that point there isn’t an urgency I can make a difference on. I encourage the same.
posted by meinvt at 4:50 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]

On the other side of the world, I’m going to bed. Obviously, in about seven hours, nothing will have likely been decided, but, uh, here’s hoping to waking up to good news. Best of luck, see you in the morning.
posted by Ghidorah at 4:52 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]

looks at the bottle of meds. do i take an extra hit of anti-anxiety today. or do i just get through it with the regular dose and some nsaids. my partner is out of town. it's just me and the cats today. try to get some work done. pet the cats.
posted by seanmpuckett at 4:55 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

Got my ballot in the mail on October 11th, a Friday. Filled it out and dropped it off at the elections office on the following Monday. Signature verification happened two days later and the batch it was put into was counted. Had to make sure I got it done with. Now I gotta work today and that’s not gonna be the easiest thing to concentrate on. Le sigh.
posted by azpenguin at 4:58 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]

Twin Cities MeFiers- For downballot analysis I can't recommend enough Naomi Kritzer's blog (sci-fi author oft mentioned on Metafilter). Amazingly in depth and funny, I read it every election.
posted by mcstayinskool at 5:00 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]

Let's fucking GO!
posted by valkane at 5:01 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]

"One thing is clear: No matter what the vote total shows, Trump will claim victory. Either the vote totals will show him winning, and Trump will declare the process was legitimate. Or the vote totals will show that Trump lost, and Trump will claim he was cheated again — citing partial vote totals as proof. To get prepared, Popular Information has teamed up with More Perfect Union to create an election night guide for key states, illustrating how the vote totals will fluctuate as the night progresses."
posted by mittens at 5:01 AM on November 5 [12 favorites]

Hot takes?

If it's a bad night: Republicans take Virginia 7th district quickly, early in the evening. Michigan looks weak mid-evening. Sherrod Brown race in Ohio is called fairly quickly for Moreno. North Carolina is called tonight for Trump, instead of stretching into absentee ballot counting tomorrow and beyond. Contested Michigan House races go mostly to Republicans, Republicans hold in contested New York House races. Iowa 1st and 3rd go to Republicans. Presidential race called with a narrow Trump victory when Pennsylvania is called in the early morning hours. Last hope for control of the House are four or five California and Arizona House districts where mail-in ballots won't be counted for several days, and Maine 2nd and Alaska which wait for a decision from the ranked-choice processes.

If it's a good night: Democrats take Virginia 7th. Georgia and North Carolina look good for Democrats. Democrats flip back House seats in New York. Democrats take Iowa 1st and 3rd. Brown wins Ohio, Tester race in Montana runs into the early morning. Democrats take back Wisconsin 3rd and Oregon 5th. No Presidential winner declared in the early morning, but either Pennsylvania or North Carolina puts Harris over the top on Wednesday. Control of the House has to wait for slow races, but it's clear that Democrats will win. Dan Osborn of Nebraska becomes the most important person in the U.S. since he now holds the balance of power in the Senate.

If it's a really good night: Harris wins Iowa. Sure, why not? Harris wins enough swing states by enough of a margin for the race to be called in her favor around midnight. Texas and Florida Senate races run into the early morning as Democrats overperform. Democrats win enough House seats in Michigan, Iowa, New York, Wisconsin-3, Oregon-5, Virginia-7, that control of the House isn't dependent on the outcome of slow-reporting California races (which flip another 4 or 5 to Democrats).

If it's a really, really, really good night: big media pundits sit on TV slackjawed, drooling and speechless when it's reported that Kansas is too close to call, as well as Nebraska 1st district (not the Omaha district, which Harris will win in any scenario, 1st is the next district over).

(What do I really think will happen? Something between the 'bad' and 'good' scenarios above. Not gonna make definite predictions with this much granularity.)
posted by gimonca at 5:02 AM on November 5 [24 favorites]

I'm channeling my anxiety into making up silly little songs of appreciation to thank all the Americans who have already voted Harris, or who are doing so today. Seriously thank you so much. You got this! Love and solidarity from Canada.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 5:06 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

My 70+ year old mother, who has never done or said anything political in my life, sent me video last night from the Kamala rally in Philly.
posted by funkaspuck at 5:07 AM on November 5 [52 favorites]

Let’s fuckin’ gooooooooooo

Voted early (in person) last week. I don’t trust the polls, I don’t trust the fuckers that own the media, they don’t make money unless we’re glued to the screens thinking it’s a horse race. I refuse to believe people are that fucking stupid and blind after seeing what happened the last time this bastard was in office. After seeing the clear decline in whatever mental capacity he once had. After fucking Dobbs, fer Christ sakes.

It ain’t over til it’s over but I’m not going to be preemptively wallowing in misery.
posted by caution live frogs at 5:07 AM on November 5 [30 favorites]

I put out a bag of Doritos for Kamala last night. You know, like cookies for Santa.
posted by valkane at 5:09 AM on November 5 [43 favorites]

I was one of the few on MetaFilter who, in 2016, predicted a Trump victory. For some reason taking a lot of flak from MeFites for suggesting he'd win Wisconsin ('What would a limey know about US politics? Stick to cricket.' was one message).

This time round am predicting, after the dust settles, a comfortable Electoral College vote victory for Kamala, and a popular vote margin of 2.5m to 3m votes in her favour.
posted by Wordshore at 5:15 AM on November 5 [64 favorites]

For people who have already voted - check your ballot to make sure it was accepted.
posted by coffeecat at 5:16 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]

In 2016 I was in the MetaFilter MST3k club chat room when the shit went down, and we were Gobsmacked (and I mean that in the most British way possible, wordshore). We were stumbling around like we had got kidney-punched. 2020 we were elated. And I got hope for this year. Maybe I'll see you watching bad sci-fi on the interwebs.
posted by valkane at 5:25 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

I know 2016 traumatized everyone, but the circumstances are real different this time round. Trump was actually funny back then—still crude and horrible, but funny—and he's got nothing left in the tank, now. Back then, he could at least plausibly for some people seem like an agent of change for the better; now, everyone knows he's a shitty failure. His rallies are half-empty even in smaller venues, and just like she said in the debate, people are bored and leave early. He's the butt of the jokes now, not the jokester. He has zero GOTV not run by obvious scammers; she's got a next-level operation.

Clinton didn't take campaigning seriously, and Harris does. She's run a campaign that's close to letter-perfect, whereas Clinton was falling down and dogged by scandal. Clinton had been the subject of 25 years of hate-propaganda, and Harris has not. Clinton had the screeching Berners after her with knives, whereas all Harris has is the Gaza/Stein voters, who are odious but way less numerous and everyone now knows what a piece of shit Stein is and how she cost Clinton the election. Props to Saint Bernie himself, who I personally loathe but is doing the gods' work this time round. Clinton had members of her own party turning away from her; Harris does not: even though she's to the right of the center of the coalition, she's got zero defectors from the Blue Dog side nor from the Ardent Progressives: props to AOC, who I also don't care for but who I acknowledge is really quite good at her job.

Republicans lined up behind Trump in 2016; now, you've got a whole cottage industry of Republicans for Harris and not even a peep of the reverse. It's totally okay now if you're a conformist conservative to leave the top of the ballot blank or vote for Harris: you've got permission from Dick Fucking Cheney FFS. But Dems will crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump. Nobody's complacent about it, either—and more than any one single thing, complacency is what killed us in 2016.

He killed a million of his own followers with COVID: blue voters wore masks and did not inject themselves with bleach or horse dewormer. His most dedicated fanbase is old and have a poor history of taking care of themselves. 13M people have died and slightly more come of age since 2020, and statistically, that's a shift in Harris' favor, even if some of those are young white men poisoned by Jordan Peterson and Andrew Tate—but they're also a really unreliable voting demographic. Show me more than a token few people who voted for Biden and now want Trump back. The only thing in this whole election that's in his favor is white guy v black woman, and while that does move the needle somewhat, I don't think it's nearly enough. Look at the absolute legions of pissed-off women going to the polls this time: a lot of them, especially the younger ones, didn't show up for Clinton, but you can bet your ass they're here this time.

The polls are skewed in Trump's favor because 3/4 of them are partisan hit jobs and/or use suuuper questionable methodology. 538 is mathematical malpractice. Harris hasn't really pushed back on this because she knows complacency kills: Dems are fickle and won't show up if they don't think it's important, like in 2016.

Most importantly, watch what the campaigns have been doing for the last two weeks. Harris is bouncing all over the swing states, with fun parties and famous surrogates, even making a show of force into Texas. Trump has been holding sparsely-attended rallies in North Carolina, trying to shore up that state (which he's going to lose because of the terrible Republican governor candidate dragging him down) because if he loses it, he has very little chance of winning the EC even if he does win Pennsylvania, which I think is very unlikely because of Harris' ground game. Abortion rights are on the ballot in Arizona, and abortion rights have won huge ever since Dobbs. Trump's campaign is acting like they know how shitty their internal polling is, and Harris' has been doing the opposite—and the internal polling is way better than the shit you see on 538.

I'm as anxious as many of you, and was certainly traumatized by 2016, but like I've said, things are quite different, now.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 5:33 AM on November 5 [109 favorites]

I saw on Reddit (I know...) that Dixville Notch tied 3-3. What that post also said, and what I cannot find corroborating evidence for, is that in D.N. there are 4 registered republicans and 2 registered independents. I do know as a fact that in the primary all 6 voted for Haley. So maybe this shift is a good thing if it's real!
posted by Snowishberlin at 5:37 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]

I refuse to believe people are that fucking stupid and blind after seeing what happened the last time this bastard was in office.
I hope you're right, but I don't have the faith in people you do. No matter how stupid you think people are, you're underestimating the capacity of people in large groups to exceed your expectations.

I really hope you're right, not only because I fear for the people of the US if you're not, but also because the outsized influence US politics has on the rest of the world means my family and I are impacted by the decision the American people are making. Please don't let us down.
posted by dg at 5:44 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]

I have decided that whichever state is the first to be called for Harris will win the title of First Past the Putz.
posted by nickmark at 5:48 AM on November 5 [24 favorites]

I hate that this is on the sidebar. Hate it. You are shoving in our faces the one subject that this site has managed to implement a topical filter for, on the worst day for it to happen. This is obviously a good post, but no one on MetaFilter needed a reminder, of any kind, associated with this election, especially if they didn't want it, double especially if they have the USPolitics filter implemented.
posted by cupcakeninja at 5:49 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

I saw on Reddit (I know...) that Dixville Notch tied 3-3. What that post also said, and what I cannot find corroborating evidence for, is that in D.N. there are 4 registered republicans and 2 registered independents. I do know as a fact that in the primary all 6 voted for Haley. So maybe this shift is a good thing if it's real!

I watched the vote this morning. Not only is the above information correct, there was one addition interesting piece- how they voted for the top of the ticket vs down ballot. The 3 Trump votes were straight (R) tickets, then there was 1 straight (D) ticket. The remaining two votes for Harris were Harris for the top of the ticket and (R) down ballot.

I am very interested if this is indicative of anything…
posted by susiswimmer at 5:52 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]

no one on MetaFilter needed a reminder, of any kind, associated with this election

I'm on Metafilter and I'm fine with it. The number of responses this thread's already getting suggests I'm not alone.

Also: I like this week's New Yorker cover.
posted by Paul Slade at 6:00 AM on November 5 [33 favorites]

I refuse to believe people are that fucking stupid and blind after seeing what happened the last time this bastard was in office.

In 2012, the Daily Mirror famously asked the post-US-election question "How can 59,054,087 people be so DUMB?" And my honest thought was "Sounds a bit low, actually."

And it was.
posted by delfin at 6:04 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]

I woke up, put my pants on, and voted.

I reminded myself about coming back from the Caribbean a week after the inauguration in 2017 where I'd ignored politics all week. Turning a corner at the airport into a throng asking if you need a lawyer. I wrote it up into a comment at the time. Not going back to that.

Anyhow, I stuck my I Voted sticker in my wallet with the rest of them.
posted by Catblack at 6:05 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]

A few notes from PA-7:

We canvassed on Sunday. When we got to the Harris office we learned that there were five buses of volunteers spreading out throughout our county. We door knocked and didn’t get a ton of hits but everyone we did see said they would vote and boy had there been a lot of outreach that weekend.

We early voted two weeks ago but many of our friends did not. There are lines out the door at the college polling station, our polling station a few blocks away, and the other polling stations too in our neighborhood too. A neighbor I have always thought of as on the fence politically has a full suite of Dem signs on their lawn.

I am desperately trying to stay pessimistic. I’ve been here before, in 2016 and in 2004. But I am allowing myself the smallest possible amount of hope.
posted by thecaddy at 6:06 AM on November 5 [29 favorites]

put my pants on

thank you for your service :)
posted by mcstayinskool at 6:07 AM on November 5 [48 favorites]

Multiple counties in IL are unable to vote due to vendor software/hardware failing right after polls opened. Vendor reportedly is not answering phones. If this affects states that are actually in play, it's going to get real interesting.
posted by SaltySalticid at 6:17 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]

After canvassing in 2020 and 2022, Mr Machine has been out volunteering for the Dems almost every weekend since May, and just finished a run of super-full days of training and de-briefing canvassers at our local field office in Philadelphia.

A few points of anecdata:

1. People are coming in from all over the country to help. He had people in from California and New York and even some state representatives from Rhode Island.

2. People are willing to do the work. At this point, the gentrified neighborhoods in our key turnout city in a swing state are burned-over districts, but the Harris ground operation is sending people into areas that Biden's didn't. They're canvassing in not just the traditional areas full of upper-middle class, well-educated white Dem voters, but in working class communities of color.

3. People are responding. Canvassing is usually a game of inches, but in the new canvassing areas, the field office where my husband volunteered was making bounds and strides. There were people who didn't have a plan, but now do. There were people who were undecided, but are now voting Harris. A canvassing group knocked on the door of a very sweet older woman who really wanted to vote for Harris, but was frightened because she had read about some of the violence being carried out at polling places by MAGA supporters, so one of the volunteers from California offered to personally come to her door at 9 am on Election Day and walk her to the polling place, and she enthusiastically took him up on it. Maybe she is even voting right now!

I'm really proud of Mr Machine, and I'll be so proud of my city if, once again, bad things happen to Donald Trump here.
posted by joyceanmachine at 6:18 AM on November 5 [67 favorites]

I'm listening to the BBC coverage now, and they're speaking about how Philadelphia is where a lot of the big shit is gonna go down because it has the most electoral college votes in play among the swing states.

It reminded me of 2020 when I had the thought that Philadelphia is kind of a "restore to factory settings" button on our government.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:19 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]

Please let me stop thinking about Tr*mp again.

I'll settle for thinking of him only in the context of: Trial, conviction, sentencing, prison; rinse and repeat.
posted by Gelatin at 6:20 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]

Mostly nervous today about the potential for isolated incidents of violence and coordinated incidents of fuckery. But mostly optimistic about the outcome. Add this article about the Kansas survey (not poll) to the hope-reading you do to get by today. (Doesn't predict a win there but makes today feel very weird in the let's fucking go sense.)
posted by kensington314 at 6:20 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]

Lines have been out the door in St. Louis City and County since early voting started on October 22nd. We went on Friday the 25th, first thing in the morning, and still waiting an hour to vote. The line was quiet and pleasant, the library staff who were hosting the polling place had everything down to a routine, and the poll workers were pleasant, if not excited. They'd call out any time they had a first time voter, and everyone would clap and cheer. Excellent vibes, tbh.

I don't know how this is going to go, I'm terrified, but it feels different somehow.

Notes:

- I work at a polling place. I should go see how things are going, if the rain lets up.

- The library staff were running a side poll: Butterfingers vs. Reeces Peanut Butter Cups. I voted correctly: Butterfingers.

- Man, I love libraries so much.
posted by gc at 6:20 AM on November 5 [38 favorites]

Candidly I'm a wreck and I'm trying to stay distracted but struggling to focus. I hope everyone is taking care of themselves as best they are able whatever happens.
posted by an octopus IRL at 6:23 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]

I like most of the rest of the world would not like to think about trump* ever ever again after this election. and I'm hoping it'll be over when it's over but history suggests otherwise.

In the meantime, I'll be outside the polls making the 30% Democrats here in my red red part of SW Virginia feel welcome while they vote, I'll be remembering the Republicans who came in to our Dems office asking for signs, and the neighbors who have told me that they have never voted for a Democrat but this time they are.

*except for the trial, conviction, sentencing especially for January 6th and Georgia.
posted by bluesky43 at 6:24 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]

I hate that this is on the sidebar

For anyone who would rather not see the sidebar (today, or just generally) try the My Mefi view for a sidebar-free experience.
posted by taz at 6:25 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]

May the best woman win.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:25 AM on November 5 [63 favorites]

>that fucking stupid and blind

this 2004 CNN Exit Poll opened my eyes 20 years ago now.

"VOTE BY INCOME" showed a smooth gradient of support, po' people lean (D) 60+% and upper middle class lean (R) 60+%

"WHITE EVANGELICAL/BORN-AGAIN?" while "only" ~1/4th the vote they were Bush's strongest bloc (along with billionaires, not polled) at ~80%. (This is why Elog was bending the knee at his nazi rally last night).

on the "ABORTION SHOULD BE..." question, 40% wanted to restrict it, same 40% were against same-sex couples

We've got a 40% vs 40% cold civil war in this country, no matter how today goes. Dems have to retake the House, Senate, and most likely SCOTUS for them to effect positive change here going forward.
posted by torokunai at 6:26 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

Remember that many states have abortion-related proposals on the ballot in statewide elections. Notably, Florida, Missouri and South Dakota, where the outcome of the election could overturn Republican anti-abortion laws. And also in Arizona and Nevada, where abortion-related ballot initiatives could affect turnout in Presidential swing states.
posted by gimonca at 6:27 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

checking the very comprehensive list of tags, we have "Taiwan" and "Ukraine" and we are still evidently aspiring to general concern about "HumanRights".

mods, can we at least pretend we give a fuck on any sort of consistent basis and add the "Palestine" tag that right now looks aggressively and pointedly omitted? not even asking for an "Israel" tag to match "Russia".
posted by busted_crayons at 6:28 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]

I'm listening to the BBC coverage now, and they're speaking about how Philadelphia is where a lot of the big shit is gonna go down because it has the most electoral college votes in play among the swing states.

Philadelphia DA says "F Around and Find Out" to election-day interference
posted by delfin at 6:29 AM on November 5 [23 favorites]

In New York the proposal in play is an Equal Rights Amendment. The vote-yes side has been pitching it as a "protecting abortion rights" thing, and the vote-no side has been trotting out the usual transphobic nonsense.

NYC also has a handful of other proposals Mayor Adams tried to glomp on there but screw that.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:30 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]

No one on MetaFilter needed a reminder, of any kind, associated with this election, especially if they didn't want it

To my very bones, I understand the emotional appeal of simply trying not to think about this election any more than necessary today.

But if that's your goal, what you want to do is turn off all of your devices, not wag your finger every time you see the subject come up. Your finger is gonna get tired and it still won't make a difference.

It's a pretty big deal. People on a discussion site are gonna discuss it. Give yourself permission to opt out, and that's all you can do.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:30 AM on November 5 [83 favorites]

What I'd really like to see is a repeat of the incident in 2012, when the Fox News election office called Ohio for Obama, and Karl Rove left the broadcast desk and went storming down the hall to yell at them for reporting reality.
posted by gimonca at 6:30 AM on November 5 [17 favorites]

For all of you who are going to be glued to the news cycle today: remember to be kind to yourself.

I am opting out--in fact, I am likely to not be on the Blue after this comment as the US election infects everything on this site, it seems--of putting myself in a state of high anxiety. (This is progress for me! Thanks, therapy!) I leave the office at 1 pm; at home, I will be rolling a nice fat joint, putting on my serotonin playlist, and making a cheesecake because heck, I have not made a cheesecake in ages. I have asked friends and family to not text me about election stuff because I have voted and now it's out of my hands. (It was never in my hands, tbh.) I am hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.

Shepherd still thinks I should renounce my citizenship if Horrible Human gets in again, but I still have family back home so that complicates things for me.

Anyway. Be kind to yourself and others today. It's gonna be tense.
posted by Kitteh at 6:31 AM on November 5 [22 favorites]

I have the dread I only knew on Report Card Day. We're going to get a lot of answers tonight, and a lot of them I'm just plain not going to like.
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:33 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]

Did the thing, feeling good. Get her done.
posted by chainlinkspiral at 6:41 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]

For all of you who are going to be glued to the news cycle today: remember to be kind to yourself.

And to add a little to that: there's a fairly high probablility that a lot of stuff will be undecided late this evening. Give yourself permission to go to bed and get a decent night's sleep.
posted by gimonca at 6:42 AM on November 5 [12 favorites]

The thing about the "most important election of our time" thing is that while it is annoying when we say this every time, it's fucking horrible when it stops being said each time and finally rests at one particular election.

Ask Hungary. Theirs was 2010.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:45 AM on November 5 [38 favorites]

Went to vote around 8:30 am in Queens this morning and for whatever stroke of luck, there wasn't anybody else from my voting district group so I was in and out in less than 10 minutes. Some of the other registration tables had short lines, but it was almost eerily quiet. A much better experience than my boss, who waited for 55 minutes for early voting last Friday in Long Island.

Last election cycle, I'll never forget when the election was finally called the weekend after. We were walking around Manhattan, and all of the sudden there were happy yells and screams erupting from open windows and on the street as the word got out that Trump lost. There was this amazing electric manic energy that erupted, with people spontaneously partying and dancing in the streets for the rest of the day. It was amazing, one of the brightest moments in years...

I so look forward to this again...
posted by rambling wanderlust at 6:46 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]

I am desperately trying to stay pessimistic.

This sentence speaks to my very soul.
posted by invincible summer at 6:48 AM on November 5 [29 favorites]

I mean, the most important election of our lifetime was 2016, we just fucked it up.
posted by rikschell at 6:49 AM on November 5 [22 favorites]

Although maybe it was 2000 and we sure could have done better then, too.
posted by rikschell at 6:50 AM on November 5 [40 favorites]

But if that's your goal, what you want to do is turn off all of your devices, not wag your finger every time you see the subject come up. Your finger is gonna get tired and it still won't make a difference.

It's a pretty big deal. People on a discussion site are gonna discuss it. Give yourself permission to opt out, and that's all you can do.

You are missing the specific point I was trying to make. Many people here want to discuss the election. That's fine, of course! I hate the idea that this should rise up in importance to the level of blowing through the one (1) automated guardrail we have in place here. The rest of it's subjective, tagging, mod judgment, etc. I specifically chose to visit this site today because of the guardrail, as opposed to the rest of my social media apps, which are temporarily gathered together in a folder entitled "PAIN." (English, not French)

That said, you're probably right in a general sense. I should have known better than to come here today.
posted by cupcakeninja at 6:52 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]

Although maybe it was 2000 and we sure could have done better then, too.

In retrospect, the mistake of 2000 was accepting a partisan SCOTUS handing the election to Dubya on dubious grounds. I doubt the same trick will work this year, though, much as Thomas and Alito (and their spouses) would like to appoint Trump again.
posted by Gelatin at 6:53 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]

My local betting agency has 2.5x payout for Harris, 1.6x payout for Trump.

Trump is a meme stock. Be like that dude from Milwaukee who goes down to Chicago bars and gets all the Packers/Bears action he can get.
posted by whuppy at 6:54 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

Although maybe it was 2000 and we sure could have done better then, too.

Not to, like, try to do history in the thread, but the 1992 democratic primary really charted the course that we are still on (or, the rut we are still trying to crawl out of, if you prefer).
posted by mittens at 6:55 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

Well, I guess that's it, and now… **Glances off to the side** Apparently the UK has its own special message. **Takes a piece of paper from the UK, unfolds it* Huh, it's a drawing of… what, exactly? *Stares quizzically, turns it ninety degrees, drops the piece of paper with a startled look**

Look, we elected Boris 'pants on fire' Johnson cos we really wanted our hard-as-nails Brexit and making the immigration system even crueller, followed by Liz 'Lettuce' Truss , who managed to impoverish basically everybody. It's possible Nigel 'Trump's lickspittle' Farage could hold the balance of power at the next election. We've seen some shit over this last decade, man, and the new lot aren't actually changing much cos we're flat broke, apart from the super-rich who are coining it in, of course.

*stares off into the distance, winces*

Just uh, don't do what we did and put the mad right wing in charge. Please? You deserve so much better.

Wishing you all the best with the uhh, incoming hellscape/coup attempt to deliver said hellscape. We're all rooting for you!
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 6:55 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]

From the POV that good campaigns should win and bad ones lose, I just want gravity to start working again.
posted by whuppy at 6:58 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]

It's an historical accident that this is not a straight run-off between two candidates. If it were, then many candidates would have already competed in a first round, and if none of them got the majority vote (50% +1), then the top two candidates survived to the last round. This would have given the US a robust multi-party system and drastically reduced the negative campaigning to a brief few weeks between only two candidates. The last round is where voters would confidently know they have already contributed to the polling method for their candidate in the first round and now can vote against a candidate in the last round without confusion or regret.
posted by Brian B. at 7:03 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

Everything else aside, I look forward to receiving fewer election-related text messages starting tomorrow. But maybe I'm being naive.
posted by Winnie the Proust at 7:10 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]

Champaign County, Illinois was one of the counties affected by some kind of outage. Reports are that it's back up and running and officials are working to extend hours. Champaign County is home to the University of Illinois (55,000+ students).
posted by JoeZydeco at 7:11 AM on November 5 [17 favorites]

We're about to start getting either "Help sponsor the legal effort to protect the legitimate results" donation requests or "we have to organize to hold back this incoming shitshow" donation requests.

The texts/emails are not going to stop.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:13 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]

I think (hope) people that are into betting as a “market indicator” are much more likely to trend rightward.

or manipulate
posted by chavenet at 7:13 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]

I've been holding back some donation cash to help the post-election legal effort(s).
posted by JoeZydeco at 7:14 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]

Not to, like, try to do history in the thread, but the 1992 democratic primary really charted the course that we are still on (or, the rut we are still trying to crawl out of, if you prefer).

I'm rather curious as to what you mean, here. I can remember the 1992 campaign pretty clearly, but am having trouble slotting it in to what you say.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 7:14 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]

“They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. Andthey absolutely will not stop… ever, until you change your number!”
posted by TwoWordReview at 7:15 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

I am desperately trying to stay pessimistic.

This sentence speaks to my very soul.

Fox livestream for those of us who also prefer a nice clear view of the oncoming train's headlight.
posted by flabdablet at 7:15 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

It took me 10 minutes from the time I left my front door to walking out of the polling place with my "I Voted!" sticker, and that includes surrendering my mail-in ballot to the confused poll workers who had no record of me having a mail-in ballot. (This is an issue about which I am in contact with election officials.) Everyone seems to be in a good mood and I had the opportunity to pass through the remains of last night's Harris / Walz rally on the parkway during my morning run, which was cool. I love that about running - you can do it almost anywhere!

From this point forward it is going to be an extreme challenge to stay focused at work and get anything done.
posted by grumpybear69 at 7:18 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

My local betting agency has 2.5x payout for Harris, 1.6x payout for Trump.

The only thing you can deduce from that is that people who put money down at betting agencies are more likely to be Trump supporters.
posted by vacapinta at 7:18 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

Everything else aside, I look forward to receiving fewer election-related text messages starting tomorrow. But maybe I'm being naive.

Don't you know! We're only four years from the most important election of our lifetime? Donate now!

(Also the midterms, but whatevs).
posted by pattern juggler at 7:21 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

Dr. Mrs. TheKaijuCommuter likes to tease me about how slow my ballot bubbling is, but in my defense, we had like six local bonds to vote on this year.
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 7:22 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]

Not to, like, try to do history in the thread, but the 1992 democratic primary really charted the course that we are still on (or, the rut we are still trying to crawl out of, if you prefer).

I'm rather curious as to what you mean, here. I can remember the 1992 campaign pretty clearly, but am having trouble slotting it in to what you say.

My bet is that mittens means that in the face of the popularity of the incumbent Bush I, the Dems decided to go with the centrist Clinton, who then spent a good chunk of his administration implementing relatively conservative and business-friendly fiscal policies, and doing things that would alienate a lot of white blue-collar voters, who had been a core part of the Dem base until then.
posted by soundguy99 at 7:24 AM on November 5 [22 favorites]

This week is a marathon, not a sprint.

Drink water, take your meds, and...
posted by PistachioRoux at 7:24 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

He killed a million of his own followers with COVID: blue voters wore masks and did not inject themselves with bleach or horse dewormer.

I dunno, if the west coast polls close tonight and there hasn't been a winner declared, I'm not ruling anything out.
posted by Mayor West at 7:24 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]

Sometimes I hate being aware.
posted by grubi at 7:25 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]

Good luck, everyone. I can’t participate in the thread today. The stress has been already too much the last few weeks. Doomscrolling is bad. So take this as a reminder to disconnect when things seem bleak today. Take a walk, be free.

Mental health resources are available, and if the worst comes to pass:

988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline
Languages: English, Spanish
Hours: Available 24 hours

And remember not to blame each other for any bad tidings. The only people responsible have an (R) after their names.


See you on the far side, hopefully with huge grins.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 7:26 AM on November 5 [19 favorites]

The elementary school in Minneapolis where I vote was holding a bake sale for the people in the voting line, which was absolutely brilliant. They did a great job on the "I Voted" cookies.

Only problem is that the line was moving so quickly and efficiently, you didn't have that captive audience for very long next to the cookies and brownies and things.
posted by gimonca at 7:27 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

This year I've been throwing on nf audiobooks during the workday and I'm listening to The Destructionists this week. I could have chosen something more distracting, but it came up available at my library the day I was finishing the last book, so I queued it up.

Since my dad has been a hardcore Newt Gingrich fanboy as far back as I can remember, this book is doing a better job highlighting my own personal history of disappointment than setting dire presentments for the day. Hopefully.
posted by phunniemee at 7:27 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

Just uh, don't do what we did and put the mad right wing in charge.

What are we calling Keir Starmer btw? Flag as a derail if you like, but I'm looking around and watching all these so-called Western democracies pissing their pants to elect Not the Worst. Folks, the world is in trouble. I am caught up in this hype and it's shitty. The Most Etc. Yes let's defeat that fucking scumbag and never hear that voice as soon as possible. Meanwhile: billionaires, Everything Else, and the intractable tides of collapse.
posted by ginger.beef at 7:29 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

I voted early this year, and it felt... different somehow. Maybe because it felt like democracy was on the ballot. Crossing my fingers it wasn't in vain.
posted by tommasz at 7:30 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]

Just checked and our (overseas, mailed in) ballots were received in Tx. Oh what joy I will reap if Ted-in-real-life-I'm-also-a-shithead-Cruz is ousted from office.

The rest? I don't dare say a word.
posted by From Bklyn at 7:30 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

...a lot of stuff will be undecided late this evening. Give yourself permission to go to bed and get a decent night's sleep.

That's excellent advice. The kind that I will, to my everlasting regret, never take.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 7:32 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]

I have pretty bad anxiety and the top thing that unnerves the shit out of me is when people are stupid and/or mean.

This election is a rough time. Thanks for being here, everybody.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:33 AM on November 5 [23 favorites]

I'm cautiously optimistic. The Trump campaign's gotten weird over the past couple of weeks, and not in a good way. Also, a lot of Republicans are vocally hating Trump. The last time I saw that was in Alabama, and it briefly got a Democratic Senator. In any case, it's been storming here all morning, but that doesn't matter because we all voted last week. My long shot hope is that we knock out Ted Cruz. Allrad's run a better campaign than Beto did last time, so here's hoping for a miracle.
posted by Spike Glee at 7:36 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]

I can remember the 1992 campaign pretty clearly, but am having trouble slotting it in to what you say.

Bill Clinton intentionally moved the Democratic party toward the right. The strategy worked for that one election (and one wonders, could Brown or Tsongas have won that general election anyway? Probably...). But it made leftists feel betrayed/ignored, like "both parties are the same" and turned them to apathy or the Greens. And also, leftists get blamed every time a Democrat loses.

Neither centrism nor "reaching across the aisle" has ever slowed down the Republicans from declaring every single Democrat "the most extreme socialist ever" or done anything to heal any divides or whatever.

It looked like Bernie was set to shake things up and break the centrist grip, but then another Clinton won the primary, then lost to Trump in the worst game of rock-paper-scissors ever... etc.

Anyway, this is history, I'm not just against TFG but for Harris (as long as we hold her feet to the fire over Palestine and some other issues). As far as "first female president" goes I like Harris a lot more than H.Clinton. (Warren could have been great though...)
posted by Foosnark at 7:39 AM on November 5 [28 favorites]

I live in a very blue part of a fairly blue state but I was still so relieved to go vote I wanted to cry. (Also, our poll workers are the kindest and most fun. I love them.)

I'm feeling weirdly optimistic along with wanting to burst into tears and possibly throw up. I don't know what will happen but I am heartened by all the good people around me who are doing all the right things.
posted by edencosmic at 7:41 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]

One of the factors giving me hope is that over the past few days, the Trump campaign has been acting like it thinks it's losing. Trump wouldn't be yammering about a rigged election except to assuage his own ego at the prospect of yet another loss.
posted by Gelatin at 7:41 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]

I voted absentee in October, but this morning my wife headed to our local precinct and was back in minutes. She brought back a "RVA Votes" sticker featuring our very unofficial possum mascot. It's no werewolf shredding its shirt, but I'll take it.
posted by emelenjr at 7:41 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]

I think blaming Bill Clinton for that is glossing over pretty broad centrist tendencies in that entire generation of Democratic leadership. It was many/most of them. And not only have we not been able to talk the party out of it since, we're basically having to wait for that generation to retire or die to move past it.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:42 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]

Scenes from the Boston polls, 7:05 AM: was in line 5 minutes after the polling station opened. There were ~20 people in front of me, but the line moved pretty quickly. Notably, there were several folks wearing "Election official" ID stickers milling about the line, which I don't recall seeing in previous election cycles, but everyone was convivial. Several folks in line had their dogs with them, and raised the question of whether dogs were allowed inside or had to be tied up by the door. Neither outdoor election official seemed to know whether the voting facility (an eldercare building whose first floor converts nicely to a polling station) allowed dogs inside. Consensus was "easier to get forgiveness than permission", so two doggos accompanied my 7-year-old and I inside. Aforementioned 7-year-old was pleased with this outcome. Myself, I'm waiting for the AM radio cranks out in Worcester to run with the headlines "ELECTION OFFICIALS IGNORANT OF LAW, CHAOS AT THE POLLS, STATE DEM APPARATCHIKS IN SHAMBLES"
posted by Mayor West at 7:42 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

What are we calling Keir Starmer btw? Flag as a derail if you like, but I'm looking around and watching all these so-called Western democracies pissing their pants to elect Not the Worst.

Moderately right wing, same as Harris? Some small improvements to public services and not actively making cost of living worse, while leaving the super rich and multinationals to suck up ever more money as usual, not exactly enthralling over Israel?

I mean compared to the Literal Nazi Bros trying to institute an actual dictatorship by fraud on the other side in the US she's a fricking saint, but it's not like she's proposing actual radical change to the vampire capitalism monster that's eating the West alive.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 7:42 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

Well, I just found that there's an election watch party two blocks from my house, at a Mexican restaurant that has a 100-foot screen. I'll head there after the movie and stuff myself with burritos while i watch a couple hours.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:43 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]

Bill Clinton intentionally moved the Democratic party toward the right.

Well, yeah, because the Dems had been getting slaughtered for 12 years. He took down an incumbent, which is not easy to do.

It looked like Bernie was set to shake things up and break the centrist grip...

Don't mistake depth of support for breadth of support. Bernie's fans really loved him, but everyone else was like are you kidding?
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 7:43 AM on November 5 [22 favorites]

My hope, regarding the R hate that is finally being publicly shown toward Trump, is that they have internal polling numbers showing them as losing, and they know that it’s because they tied themselves to Trump and are going down with him. You knew what you were doing, assholes. You’ll say you didn’t have a choice, but yes you did. There’s a whole other party full of people who were able to make that choice. I hope it’s a downticket bloodbath of R losses, and I hope they choke on it.
posted by notoriety public at 7:43 AM on November 5 [20 favorites]

*finger pistols*
PTSD resurfacing hard, or hardly resurfacing your PTSD?
*chuckles, pounds entire carafe of coffee*
posted by cortex at 7:43 AM on November 5 [64 favorites]

hi cortex, miss u
posted by phunniemee at 7:48 AM on November 5 [31 favorites]

Trump wouldn't be yammering about a rigged election except to assuage his own ego at the prospect of yet another loss.

The same Trump who has been yammering about rigged elections since at least 2008? I . . . don't really think that's a bellwether.
posted by aspersioncast at 7:51 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]

I am desperately trying to stay pessimistic.

Pessimism of the intellect: optimism of the will.
posted by Paul Slade at 7:53 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]

Whoever wins please spare a thought for the trans people in your community; Labour in the UK won and immediately started throwing trans people under the bus and I know we have no chance with Trump but there's no guarantee we'll be safe under Harris either, especially trans people in red states who are already in grave danger. If you see or hear people talking about how we're a distraction or a wedge issue please push back on that as well as any other forms of transphobia you encounter. We're a relatively small extremely vulnerable community and we've received a lot of negative attention and the environment that created isn't going to disappear overnight even if Harris wins as I am fervently praying she will.
posted by an octopus IRL at 7:53 AM on November 5 [76 favorites]

looks like i picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue

but yes. seconding what our friendly local octopus said--things have gotten awful for trans people in the uk, and given how several democrats have accorded themselves in this election, the trust is just not there.

"things would be worse--" yes we know.
posted by i used to be someone else at 7:59 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]

The last time I saw that was in Alabama, and it briefly got a Democratic Senator

For those curious: Democrat Doug Jones represented the state of Alabama in the United States Senate from Jan 2018 through Jan 2021. I know 2021 feels like a long time ago, but it's fairly recent.

IIRC that was thanks largely to a special election where Black women turned out in force and Roy Moore had to contend with the noteworthy disadvantage of being Roy Moore.

Republicans aren't necessarily even guaranteed victory in the reddest of red states. When I voted early and got to the screen to pick between Actual Human Ted Cruz and Colin Allred I finger-stabbed the screen hard enough to shake the little privacy shield thing. So here's hoping.
posted by howbigisthistextfield at 8:04 AM on November 5 [17 favorites]

FWIW the 2016 campaign also featured Trump claiming the votes were rigged right up until he won
posted by Jon_Evil at 8:10 AM on November 5

Don't mistake depth of support for breadth of support. Bernie's fans really loved him, but everyone else was like are you kidding?

his favorability rankings are quite high
posted by BungaDunga at 8:11 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]

The same Trump who has been yammering about rigged elections since at least 2008? I . . . don't really think that's a bellwether.

Trump never expected to win in 2016, and even then barely did. He lost in 2020, and attempted a coup to stay in office. He's losing now. He has much less energy and is much more openly racist and sexist now. His base loves it, but his base has never been enough to win. There are more of us than there are of them.

Yes, he's yammering about rigged elections, because he expects to lose and his ego can't take it.
posted by Gelatin at 8:12 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]

FWIW the 2016 campaign also featured Trump claiming the votes were rigged right up until he won

they definitely thought they were going to lose in 2016 too. they just happened to be wrong that time
posted by BungaDunga at 8:12 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

our friendly local octopus

OMG this is the best way anyone has ever described me, thank you, I needed that!
posted by an octopus IRL at 8:12 AM on November 5 [33 favorites]

I have a picture of my 1 year old daughter helping me vote for Hillary that makes me angry every time it comes up on my timeline. I've added a picture of my 9 year old daughter helping me vote for Kamala. Please don't let me hate that picture too.

Small voting location in central NC erupted in cheers for three young men saying they were first time votes. We're deep blue enough I have to believe they voted for Harris.

My daughter, btw, said she thinks I'd make a good Vice President some day. I guess that shows who she thinks is in charge of our household lol.
posted by jermsplan at 8:14 AM on November 5 [40 favorites]

Election Day in the USA used to feel like the ending of the campaign. Today, if Trump wins, it's just another round of the fight. And, of course, if Harris wins and the right refuses to concede, it's just another round in the fight. So I'll be glad when today is over and we have a better picture of what the fight is going to be like, but I'm in this for the long haul.

Here's hoping Harris wins easily, and here's hoping the legal system holds strong, and here's hoping that the Proud Boys and their ilk get stomped if they try anything. Let's temper our hope with backup plans though because there's a whole lot of people who are going to need our help. Voting is just one of the tools.
posted by Joey Michaels at 8:16 AM on November 5 [21 favorites]

As always, I'm coping by, among other methods, reflecting on and hoping for any possible signs that the sturm und drang of the presidential election might find continuance in the much, much longer-term and lower-prominence work of organizing for long-term redress of the systemic injustices that structure our nation.

In this regard, one voice I've continually returned to in our long national nightmare is Angela Davis in Freedom Is A Constant Struggle:

But you can't simply invite people to join you and be immediately on board, particularly when they were not necessarily represented during the earlier organizing processes. You have to develop organizing strategies so that people identify with the particular issue as their issue.

Coercive systems cannot be countered without giving people an out to get away from coercion. Resistance and justice cannot be had without seeking both/and solutions that build solidarity—and material support—to avoid people being pitted against each other.

Fascism, or at least its antecedents, will be with us always—to a lesser or greater extent. Would that the same be true of our erstwhile allies.

I too may not be engaged in this thread for long, needing to tend to the compassion for myself that I struggle to cultivate so that I can also be there for others.

May we all be safe. May we all have shelter and sustenance. May we all be at ease in this world.
posted by audi alteram partem at 8:19 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]

The problem with everyone trying to read the tea leaves of Trump's or his campaigns's behavior is that we have one election where he won and one where he lost and he behaved largely the same both times. He's also a highly emotion and erratic manbaby so it's impossible to say what his constant bizarre actions and words are supposed to mean.
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:19 AM on November 5 [18 favorites]

Voted at about 7:30am this morning, a large blue city in deeply-red Rural Minnesota, bordering deeply-red North Dakota (but also bordering the blue largest city in North Dakota). Lots of people with children in tow, presumably voting on the way to school and work. Big signs on the door that no political t-shirts, caps, etc would be allowed in. A few voters in military uniforms.

The only line occurred at the "feed the paper ballot into the machine" point, because as I was finishing filling in the bubbles in my ballot booth, the machine started beeping because someone apparently fed something in wrong and it took a few minutes to get it back to working again.

The layout of the polling place was a little weird -- square in front of the entrance was a person at a table with a computer. This was just for checking that this was your correct polling place, if you weren't sure, but it seems their job was basically to tell people that if they already know this is their polling place they can go over there ---> which is where you actually got your ballot. I suspect they were secretly the "no 'lets go brandon' shirts" team too.

Cautiously optimistic for a Harris-Walz win; we just drove from here to Milwaukee and back, some of which through the rural backroads, and saw lots of Harris-Walz signs among the Trumps. All I could think is that if I lived in Wisconsin this would be an easy way to determine which businesses not to to business with in the future. Like, I don't know what the business did, but the fact they switched their big LED sign over to a "wives should vote the same as their husbands" message tells a lot about them.

My "republican-because-catholic" sister in law has done her "tired of the bad blood, leaving social media for a while" thing like she did when Biden was elected, so that also gives me confidence at the lack of confidence on that side.
posted by AzraelBrown at 8:23 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]

Joey Michaels is right, this is just the opening act.

Here's a public service annoucement that Democracy Docket is a good place to track litigation surrounding the election. Marc Elias is a saint and my only wish is that he gets off of Xhitter and onto Mastodon where I could follow him.
posted by JoeZydeco at 8:23 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]

Roy Moore had a LOT of prominent Alabama Republicans publicly refuse to vote for him, including Jeff Sessions, the outgoing Senator. (He also had a weakness for teenage girls come out during the election, which didn't help things.) Doug Jones only served one term, and was replaced by the stupidest person in the Senate, so no blue wave there.
posted by Spike Glee at 8:23 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

There are more of us than there are of them.

I mean, yeah, but neither side can claim a majority without roping in a hefty chunk of the "undecided" fuckwits who mindlessly flip the switch back and forth between D & R based on vibes, what they heard at the water cooler, what was on SNL this week, and their mostly fictitious grasp of recent history and world politics.

"Remember how great it was when gas was cheap in 2020?"
No, dipshit, it wasn't great. It was only cheap because we were in a pandemic and no one could go anywhere. It was not a policy victory in any way.

"Trump is tough; he can stop Putin."
No, fuckface, Putin felt emboldened enough to start a war because Trump cowtowed to him for four years.

And on and on.

It's not us making this decision and it's not the other side. It's the tapioca-brained shitheels who wake up from a current events coma every four years to make a huge decision for all of us based on the stupidest possible fucking factors.

We could let an inebriated preschooler make this decision and it could hardly be more fucking random.

There was a possible world where one campaign was strong enough or one lost enough momentum that one side could pull away. Neither of those things happened.

So we're stuck with total fucking turd fondlers deciding on a coin flip.

I hate 2024 so much.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:25 AM on November 5 [28 favorites]

WFO in morning. Vote around Noon. WFH in afternoon. Starting media blackout around 5ish. The Friends are hosting a special meeting tonight, so I may spend some time there in the silence. For those wanting to get away from the media, it might be worth seeing if a Meeting is being held in your city.

Light and love all.
posted by theBigRedKittyPurrs at 8:25 AM on November 5 [20 favorites]

There are more of us than there are of them.

he won with a minority once already
posted by BungaDunga at 8:31 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]

There are more of us than there are of them.

In total, of course. In the specific swing state elections that matter to the ultimate EC vote total? We'll have to see. Remember he did actually win once. That's not saying anything about this election, but this call back to pre-2016 confidence of inevitable loss is a bit odd.
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:31 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]

I've seen a lot of people describing voting for Kamala as harm reduction.

I'd argue that the non electoral work you do after this election is the harm reduction.
posted by constraint at 8:33 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]

Got up early to bike to the polls this morning, here in northern Virginia. Google Maps took me on a new route, which was interesting.

Polling site was a volunteer fire department. Dem and GOP signs dotted the parking lot. A Harris table sat _just_ outside the limit, handing out sample ballots. Inside there wasn't a line. Volunteer staffers outnumbered voters. I got my ballot, hit the carrel, filled in the squares, then fed the paper into a scanner. Volunteers told me there was a steady flow of voters and no incidents. I took stickers and a selfie on the way out.

Google Maps sent my bike and I on another new route, much longer. I passed some Trump signs, then country houses (a deer watched me), then back into town and home.
posted by doctornemo at 8:37 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]

Sorry for my (not-deleted, but still very cranky) comment above.

It's been a day already.

You're my people, though. Sending you all positive mind atoms.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:38 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]

I'm not an expert, but it seems like polling is not going great lately--a lot of people don't answer their phones, a lot of the people that do are cranks, and a lot of pollsters seem to be correcting for these factors by either telling their clients what they want to hear, trying not to make the same mistakes they made in '22 or '20 or '16, or saying 'well, after spending months consulting reams of data and years doing this kind of work, our team of experts have determined it's a fifty-fifty chance.'

(If you are an expert in polling, and you're getting ready to tell me why I'm full of crap, please do, I would genuinely welcome that.)
posted by box at 8:42 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]

Let's please avoid doom predictions

Would it be helpful to have a separate doom thread?
posted by mittens at 8:44 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]

let's not do that to our beloved mods
posted by seanmpuckett at 8:46 AM on November 5 [22 favorites]

Red or blue? The bellwether counties that could swing the US election: Pundits are keeping a close on watch on key counties across the US whose results could play a major role in the outcome [The Guardian]

In other news: I'm struggling with finalizing my pizza choices for this evening.
posted by mazola at 8:46 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]

let's not do that to our beloved mods

our what
posted by phunniemee at 8:47 AM on November 5 [20 favorites]

It's wild that even in an election cycle with a total spending of ~$16 billion (and that's just federal!), we seem to have better and finer-grained data on TV viewership than we do voter preferences.
posted by jedicus at 8:48 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]

Would it be helpful to have a separate doom thread?

In the IDSPISPOPD sense?
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:50 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]

Voted in person in Pennsylvania at 7am. The line was out to the street but went fairly quickly, plus I got to jump ahead as one of the few people in line from my district (maybe they all voted early by mail?) and was out of there with my sticker by 7:20. I expected to cry, as I did when I voted for Hillary in 2016 and Biden in 2020, but I must be all out of tears after the past eight long years.

Here's hoping the majority my fellow Americans, in the right places (and fuck the electoral college by the way), are sane enough to elect a regular flawed politician over a literal fucking fascist.
posted by biblioPHL at 8:50 AM on November 5 [18 favorites]

he won with a minority once already

America, where everyone knows who is going to get more votes, but nobody knows who is going to win!
posted by mikesch at 8:51 AM on November 5 [50 favorites]

In other news: I'm struggling with finalizing my pizza choices for this evening.

Sheesh! Yet another undecided voter still trying to make up their mind on election day.

(Under the circumstances I recommend whatever is least likely to give you heartburn.)
posted by jedicus at 8:51 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]

he's yammering about rigged elections, because he expects to lose and his ego can't take it.

... and also because he's laying the groundwork for a flood of Republican lawsuits challenging the probity of the election if Harris wins.
posted by Paul Slade at 8:52 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

I'm struggling with finalizing my pizza choices for this evening.

I recommend the St. Lucia: Ham, pineapple, jalapeno, kalamata olives and shredded coconut.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 8:52 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

after spending months consulting reams of data and years doing this kind of work, our team of experts have determined it's a fifty-fifty chance.'

It's wild that even in an election cycle with a total spending of ~$16 billion (and that's just federal!), we seem to have better and finer-grained data on TV viewership than we do voter preferences.

Reminds me of the 1955 Isaac Asimov short story "Franchise" set in a future where voting prediction has become so advanced that every election a single Voter of the Year is chosen and the election is determined based on their answers to some questions posed by the supercomputer Multivac.
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:53 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]

In other news: I'm struggling with finalizing my pizza choices for this evening.

It's down to pepperoni or broken glass, but I feel like I just haven't heard enough about the pepperoni.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:53 AM on November 5 [89 favorites]

I've seen a lot of people describing voting for Kamala as harm reduction.

I'd argue that the non electoral work you do after this election is the harm reduction.

Oh, I agree. I would still categorize a Harris vote as "harm reduction" in the sense that I'm quite certain that Trump wouldn't dream of even paying any attention to any of that non-electoral work post-election in the first place. Harris also may not do all of it - but at least she would bloody listen, you know?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:54 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]

I recommend the St. Lucia: Ham, pineapple, jalapeno, kalamata olives and shredded coconut.

Is this because the real Saint Lucia gouged her eyes out?
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:55 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]

Just sitting here with my fingers and toes crossed.
posted by bshort at 8:57 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]

Am I the only one who hates how a nationwide election boils down to one state and then to some bellwether county in that state and then in that county down to those who remained undecided? It's like one person's indigestion could decide the election.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:00 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]

An ideal outcome would see TFG, Musk, and a few courtiers on a plane bound for Minsk by midnight tonight.

I do not expect this to be the case.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 9:04 AM on November 5 [17 favorites]

and also because he's laying the groundwork for a flood of Republican lawsuits challenging the probity of the election if Harris wins.

Which, back in 2020, ran up against a solid wall of "you actually have to provide evidence for your claims in court" and failed, every single one.

Yes, Trump has ringers like Aileen Cannon in the tank for him, and Roberts, Alito, and Thomas would probably love to appoint Trump president regardless of the evidence, but I doubt the Democrats will stand for yet another partisan decision overturning the will of the majority.

The "election was rigged!" ploy didn't work in 2020 when Trump actually held the levers of power, and a number of the participants are in jail now (with Trump's own trial possibly looming if he loses, which is of course what this is all about). For a coup to work now, everyone has to gamble that the Prisoner's Dilemma will break their way -- that no one else will defect in the face of serious consequences. That bet wasn't wise in 2020 and it is less so now.
posted by Gelatin at 9:04 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]

I’m pretty sure there isn’t a unique single person with indigestion today.

I’ve had a series of doctor’s appointments this week, which include screening questions about anxiety; why yes, doctor, I *am* quite anxious at the moment. I wonder why!

Planning on doing one last round of door knocking this afternoon if I can get off work in time (and if the flu+covid vaccines I got yesterday aren’t acting up too much). Action fights despair.
posted by nat at 9:05 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]

In the IDSPISPOPD sense?

you have to no clip out of the normal election thread to find the doomer thread.
posted by pattern juggler at 9:05 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

The bit about "polling is broken because people don't answer their phones" -- polling was pretty accurate in predicting an Obama win in 2008 and 2012, and a lot of people had already moved away from landlines by then.

trying not to make the same mistakes they made in '22 or '20 or '16

I do think this is a factor in polling potentially being off this year.

The right-wing trashpolling that flooded the polling world in 2022 has returned, too, It was quiet-ish over the summer, but it returned like a plague in October.

Plus, the people who run sites with polling averages only flag a subset of the biased polls as being partisan. We like to pick on 538 for this, but it's a wider problem at several sites. It's not that tough to smoke out the bad actors: look up their website, do they do lots of consulting in really red areas, like local sheriff races in Mississippi? Who's their CEO, does he post MAGA stuff to Twitter? Only about a third to half of the right-wing "pollsters" get a red diamond next to their name to mark them as a partisan poll.
posted by gimonca at 9:05 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]

I dropped off my ballot and my brother's and my daughters yesterday afternoon. There was a weird cranky (he honked at me! For parking in the open space in front of him!) oldish dude in a car with a laptop open on the dash, watching the ballot drop off box like a hawk. It was creepy. But into the box went the ballots and that's done, love you Oregon. Although. I kind of miss voting in person on election day. I like the sense of community. And I like the sticker. Get with it, Oregon! Start giving us a sticker! I think I am going to make this my issue and push it statewide for the next four years.

If, that is, I am not a refugee in another, kinder country. I really hope I'm still here.
posted by mygothlaundry at 9:06 AM on November 5 [12 favorites]

I am naseously optimistic, but can bear thinking about the horror show that will envelop the world if the Orange Abomination succeeds in only very tiny amounts.In any sane world all the signs we are seeing should lead to a reasonable conclusion of good news coming, but I will be haunted by "you got this, Hillary" to my dying days.
posted by blue shadows at 9:08 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]

The wildcard in Coup II is going to be Speaker Mike Johnson. There are possible ways he can mess with the electoral vote if particular states play shenanigans with their vote counting.
posted by JoeZydeco at 9:08 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

> and also because he's laying the groundwork for a flood of Republican lawsuits challenging the probity of the election if Harris wins.

Which, back in 2020, ran up against a solid wall of "you actually have to provide evidence for your claims in court" and failed, every single one.

However, they also did a pretty good job of ginning up enough laymen support that they tried to stage a coup on January 6th of 2021, leading to six deaths and 174 injuries. Sometimes the point of a lawsuit - especially if you talk about it a lot - is to spread discontent OUTSIDE the courts.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:11 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]

Can we fast forward to where the screen fades to black and lists how long they all got in prison?
posted by adept256 at 9:11 AM on November 5 [51 favorites]

Am I the only one who hates how a nationwide election boils down to one state and then to some bellwether county in that state and then in that county down to those who remained undecided?

No, pretty much everyone hates it, but frankly people really really really need to stop complaining about this because until the Constitution is amended the Electoral College is how presidential elections happen. It's kind of amazing to me that in 2024 people are still whining about this.

The popular vote just doesn't matter under this system so why even bother talking about it? If you want to win you have to win under the current rules not the rules as you'd wish them to be. The Republicans get this. It's bizarre to the point of being self-defeating that Democrats/liberals focus so much on the national popular vote.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:12 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

Election Coup II: Electric Boogaloo

The sequels are always worse. Best avoided.
posted by mazola at 9:13 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]

Hoping for an inverse 1984 electoral map. Expecting a repeat of the 2008 map.
posted by swift at 9:13 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

> No, pretty much everyone hates it,

For the time being, the republicans absolutely love it, because the system makes them incredibly powerful relative to their actual popularity (and that's why we still have it)
posted by dis_integration at 9:14 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]

If I hear one more fantastical fantasy about Trump ever seeing the inside of a prison cell, I feel like I'm going to pass out.

Where's the emoji where you hold the bridge of your nose with head bowed?
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:14 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]

It's bizarre to the point of being self-defeating that Democrats/liberals focus so much on the national popular vote.

It's a weird obsession huh? Most democracies insist that the person with the most votes is the winner. Bizarre!
posted by adept256 at 9:15 AM on November 5 [21 favorites]

I'm moderately hopeful, on the basis of Male Pollsters Shocked — Shocked!! — When a Woman Pollster Discovers Women Voters

Basically, the pollsters have been over-correcting for Trump voters because they undercounted them before (especially 2016), without also correcting for a) higher death rates in Trump's older anti-vaxers and b) outright women's fury over Dobbs, which is why the polls are suspiciously far too even - even if they were actually completely tied across the board, there should have been more statistical variation in real polling, PLUS right-winger polls putting Trump ahead as a means to sell the idea that it was 'stolen' if he loses.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 9:15 AM on November 5 [20 favorites]

Honestly, I think the whole "bellwether county" thing is magical thinking.

Also, I think reporters love it, because they get a free mini-vacation to, say, Door County, Wisconsin. If my boss sent me to a resort in Door County to finish up some work, sure, I'd go.
posted by gimonca at 9:17 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]

> It's like one person's indigestion could decide the election.

ONN dropped this story:

https://youtu.be/9qI0LTmSr38
posted by torokunai at 9:17 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

Grrr... my kid has been on line to vote in Lehigh County PA for over an hour now and no one's moving. Word is that 'some' of the voting machines are not working. People are playing chess in the line, running out to the local Burger King and back. I don't want to jump to conclusions but it sounds like a dirty trick. I'd really wanted for her first voting experience to be a good one—
posted by newdaddy at 9:17 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]

I was just driving home from errands and a truck plastered with the words “TURDS B GONE” passed by me at a 4 way stop. I guess it’s a dog waste cleanup service but the message could not be more apt.
posted by sucre at 9:19 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]

It's a weird obsession huh? Most democracies insist that the person with the most votes is the winner. Bizarre!

Again, the Electoral College is the currently existing system for electing the President. I wish it weren't but it is. So it really is bizarre to keep obsessing and wasting effort over something that has no bearing on the election if you want to win the election.

"BUSH/TRUMP ONLY WON BECAUSE OF THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE!"

Well, yeah. That's how the system currently works and yelling about winning or losing the popular vote won't change anything.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:19 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

However, they also did a pretty good job of ginning up enough laymen support that they tried to stage a coup on January 6th of 2021, leading to six deaths and 174 injuries. Sometimes the point of a lawsuit - especially if you talk about it a lot - is to spread discontent OUTSIDE the courts.

Absolutely! But the coup didn't work when Trump had the levers of power, and a bunch of them are in jail now. I expect Trump's rhetoric to lead to violence again. I just don't expect it to put him in the Oval Office now when it failed in 2020.
posted by Gelatin at 9:19 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

I will probably mostly stay out of this thread but I did read somewhere (Jay Kuo? Electoral-vote.com?) that on Saturday alone the Democratic volunteers knocked over a million doors.

I've never heard anything like this.

I am hoping Dobbs will turn into a massive win for Democrats. I would sure love it if we got the trifecta and used that to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights bill.
posted by kristi at 9:20 AM on November 5 [20 favorites]

This election is not only about the possibility of fascism. It's about the possibility that Trump will begin his first steps to being out of public life forever. That's almost as good as a Kamala win.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:22 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

and also because he's laying the groundwork for a flood of Republican lawsuits challenging the probity of the election if Harris wins.

Also, the opportunity to run a second $250M "Stop the Steal" grift.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 9:24 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]

why yes, doctor, I *am* quite anxious at the moment. I wonder why!

Why am I anxious?
posted by flabdablet at 9:24 AM on November 5

I keep seeing so many comments lately from Dems on my socials to the effect of “I can’t wait until I can stop thinking about politics for the next four years.” While I get the sentiment, I can’t help thinking that kind of thinking is a big part of how our side got into this mess in the first place.
posted by non canadian guy at 9:25 AM on November 5 [29 favorites]

'Whining' about the electoral college is part of the process of building support to get rid of it. There is more to politics than just tactical decisions about the next election.
posted by Pyry at 9:26 AM on November 5 [34 favorites]

I'm generally lukewarm on Adam Conover, but this was a good message for today.

Stay safe, do what you need to do today (and going forward) for your mental health, and be ready, whomever wins, to fight for your rights, and a better world.
posted by chromecow at 9:29 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]

You know what I've just realized this moment?

We're HOW many comments into this thread and no one has made a West-Wing "the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing" joke yet?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:29 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]

That's how the system currently works and yelling about winning or losing the popular vote won't change anything.

sometimes bearing witness is all a person can do

plus, outside of this particular online bubble I fucking hope people are bringing this up with young voters constantly. clearly the older folks are happy to remind us "that's just the way things are, can't change it w/o a constitutional amendment" and something tells me they've been saying it for generations. maybe step aside for people who want to change a broken thing.
posted by ginger.beef at 9:30 AM on November 5 [19 favorites]

Basically, the pollsters have been over-correcting for Trump voters because they undercounted them before (especially 2016), without also correcting for a) higher death rates in Trump's older anti-vaxers and b) outright women's fury over Dobbs, which is why the polls are suspiciously far too even - even if they were actually completely tied across the board, there should have been more statistical variation in real polling, PLUS right-winger polls putting Trump ahead as a means to sell the idea that it was 'stolen' if he loses.

I don't think any of this is true, at all. Does 538's model correct for undercounting Trump voters? Does silvers? How does fury matter here? Are Harris voters somehow undercounted?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:30 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]

We're HOW many comments into this thread and no one has made a West-Wing "the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing" yt joke yet?

Now you have to go outside, turn three times, and spit!
posted by Gelatin at 9:31 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]

Like are we talking about pollsters (people who admis polls) or modelers?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:32 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]

The Onion is also currently streaming BREAKING: Live Look Inside Voting Booth
posted by Catblack at 9:32 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

If there's a trifecta the first three things should be:

1. John Lewis Voting Rights Act
2. Four new supreme court seats (to match the 13 circuit districts)
3. Increase the size of the house to 650 representatives (reduces discrepancies between the smallest states and the largest states, and also improves the distribution of electoral votes)
posted by thecaddy at 9:34 AM on November 5 [34 favorites]

I don't think any of this is true, at all. Does 538's model correct for undercounting Trump voters? Does silvers? How does fury matter here? Are Harris voters somehow undercounted?

I believe all those are answered in the fine article, from a far more credible and credentialed analyst than me.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 9:34 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]

'Whining' about the electoral college is part of the process of building support to get rid of it. There is more to politics than just tactical decisions about the next election.

clearly the older folks are happy to remind us "that's just the way things are, can't change it w/o a constitutional amendment" and something tells me they've been saying it for generations. maybe step aside for people who want to change a broken thing.

Good luck. I genuinely mean that because the EC has got to go, but amending the Constitution for any reason, let alone to remove the EC, in the current political climate is going to be harder than willing unicorns into existence.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:36 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

Legal question/riddle from a thing I saw on Wikipedia.

Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022

Transition funds
The law allows multiple "apparent successful candidates" to receive federal presidential transition funds if more than one candidate has not conceded five days after the election. It provides guidelines for the administrator of the General Services Administration to determine when and to whom funds should be released.

So at first glance, this looks like Trump gets free money for refusing to concede for 5 days, no matter what? Lol if true.

But also, I heard the Trump campaign has refused to file transition plan paperwork, including some important signatures, so maybe they've already blown it? That would be very funny.

Thanks in advance to any informed election law people who care to venture an opinion.
posted by ryanrs at 9:37 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]

but I will be haunted by "you got this, Hillary" to my dying days.

I'll be haunted by that, plus 2000, when I went to bed with Al Gore as my President and woke up the next day with George Bush the winner.

Needless to say, I'm not going to be getting a lot of sleep tonight.
posted by invincible summer at 9:38 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]

Well, yeah. That's how the system currently works and yelling about winning or losing the popular vote won't change anything.

Yelling about climate change wont change anything

Yelling about gay marriage wont change anything

Yelling about civili rights wont change anything

As far as I know we are talking about it, it's bone deep unfairness, and the need to get rid of it. Is that ok? Or is there some new edict of forbidden subject we all should be aware of.
posted by WatTylerJr at 9:38 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]

Midday Check-in from the reliably, exceptionally blue sector of NC:

Anxiety Level: High. Like "for real, time to break out the benzos later" high. I closed the office today and gave the staff the day off. Mostly so I could spend as much time as possible outside (it's beautiful) watching the leaves fall and going on long walks whenever I think I'm about to have a heart attack. It does not help that my mother had cancer surgery last week at a hospital in Asheville where they still don't have potable water. She's okay (and they got it all), but Jesus Fucking Christ Flying Kites it has been several straight weeks of train coming at you stress over here on the pond. Even the cats are jumpy.

Vote Status: Did it first day of early voting. Some weird ballot hijinks over the weekend on the BOE website let to me asking three friends who are Civil Rights lawyers, the NC Voter Protection Hotline, and the staff at the polling place to help me figure it out. Short version: a vote has been counted in my name. Weird shit though. Did I overreact? Perhaps. But it's 2024

Plans: Do I go out and watch the results? Do I stay in? Why does this feel like a much bigger decision than it should be? Is superstitious bullshit genetic? This is on you, Nana.

Pizza: I'm having Carrburritos today, which is my local favorite comfort food , but if I were having pizza, I have the one with fancy mushrooms, fontina, and fennel sausage. And maybe a nice Scottish Ale or four (depending on results).

Fingers crosssed that I don't poison myself chewing on a gel manicure. Will update.
posted by thivaia at 9:38 AM on November 5 [28 favorites]

There is more to politics than just tactical decisions about the next election.

It seems fairly clearly now that the GOP endgame is that there are no more elections.
posted by ryanshepard at 9:40 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]

No matter who wins, we're in a moment of normalizing genocide. Remember, all of that fear of "what could happen" is happening to people right now and will continue happening under either of these candidates.
posted by iamck at 9:40 AM on November 5 [12 favorites]

We're HOW many comments into this thread and no one has made a West-Wing "the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing" joke yet?

The West Wing allowed big chunks of Gen Xers (and folks just to either end of that gen) to imagine a fantasy world where politics were a matter of clashing ideals which would be resolved with logic and good hearts. This, as opposed to [whatever your description of our shared dark reality is these days] and I will never forgive it for that.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:42 AM on November 5 [18 favorites]

I don't think any of this is true, at all.

It is true that reputable pollsters have altered the results of their polling to be more favorable to Trump to avoid understating his support. It's called weighting by recalled vote and you can read about it here.
posted by ultraviolet catastrophe at 9:43 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]

I had a pleasant hour-ish commute in a subway with no internet connection, but now I'm at work and the doom scrolling has begun. I don't think I have it in me resist so I'm embracing the misery for a day and thinking of it as bearing witness.

It sucks but I'm glad you're all here to commiserate. Hang in there.
posted by Phobos the Space Potato at 9:44 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

As far as I know we are talking about it, it's bone deep unfairness, and the need to get rid of it. Is that ok? Or is there some new edict of forbidden subject we all should be aware of.

I'll prepare a memo with guidelines on the subject so check your inbox.

When I say it's pointless to whine and focus on the popular vote, I mean in the sense that I see here and elsewhere where people will say something like (using example numbers) "80% of the country supports access to abortion, I can't believe Trump can win not supporting it*!" But this is meaningless because what matters to winning the election is what the relevant voting populations in the swing states support and influencing that. It can in fact be actively harmful to a campaign to point to general numbers that give a false sense of confidence.

*I know recently Trump has changed his tune and now says things friendlier to abortion access.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:45 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]

I am stress eating candy I bought for my students. Class is at two. Not sure if there will be any left by then.
posted by pangolin party at 9:49 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

This, as opposed to [whatever your description of our shared dark reality is these days] and I will never forgive it for that.

Two counter-arguments:

1. Sometimes giving people an idealized vision is the first step into making them think it's possible, and thus something to be worked towards.

2. Dude, I was trying to cheer the room up by pointing out how this is a joke that gets dropped a lot and yet no one had dropped it yet, and wasn't that weird. Sheesh.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:50 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]

It's bizarre to the point of being self-defeating that Democrats/liberals focus so much on the national popular vote.

The entire Dem operation is focused on seven states that will decide the Electoral College. And many thousands of liberals have abandoned their own states, some for weeks, to go to those seven states. Every dollar is being spent there, every eyeball is trained on those states.
posted by kensington314 at 9:50 AM on November 5 [26 favorites]

Earlier this year, during a visit to friends in Spain, I took a side trip to BCN to do a two-day working interview with a colleague there juuust in case TFG wins. May these frantic months of brushing up on Castillan Spanish and learning Catalan be una pèrdua de temps*.

A waste of time
posted by chainringtattoo at 9:51 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]

Dude, I was trying to cheer the room up by pointing out how this is a joke that gets dropped a lot and yet no one had dropped it yet, and wasn't that weird. Sheesh.

Sorry, EC.

You can expect me to vacillate wildly between, "Keep strong, dear ones!" and "Every single solitary one of us is well and truly fucked" all damn day.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:54 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]

I am in an MA programme in London with a bunch of swing-state voters who remarked on how quiet their experience of this election was. I was always a West Coast voter, so I never got the Michigan level treatment, but it sounds absolutely exhausting.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 9:55 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]

I do believe Trump could solve the housing crisis in America. So many people would be moving out.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:55 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

Small town rustbelt update:

A few days ago, a Harris/Walz door-knocker drove up from DC, at least a couple hundred miles travel.

Another this morning all the way from TX.

We're all still anticipating a coin toss, Schrodinger's WTF, but we're also still seeing as many Harris signs as Trump, in a region where MAGA had previously been comfortably loud and proud and excessive.

My better half and I voted at noon, at a church around the corner, under five minutes total, remarkable only for the contrast between banality and such gravity. It's a stunningly beautiful autumn day here, for whatever that's worth.
posted by Claude Hoeper at 9:56 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]

Remember not to be disheartened by The Red Mirage, and to stand up for a full count of the votes so The Blue Shift can finish.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 9:57 AM on November 5 [12 favorites]

Thivaia, since I think you and I live in the same town (alongside caviar2d2), I'd like to let you know that Cedar Falls Park is especially lovely today. I walked out there earlier to say hi to my coworkers who had taken the day off and were letting their kids run around the playground.
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 9:58 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

It is true that reputable pollsters have altered the results of their polling to be more favorable to Trump to avoid understating his support. It's called weighting by recalled vote and you can read about it here.

It's true that most pollsters have used models to try to capture the Trump undercount that happened in 2016 and 2020. But it isn't yet clear whether they did enough to get there, just the right amount, or not enough.

The fact that they weighted up Trump votes doesn't imply that they will miss in our favor this time around. Trump could still outperform the polls and clean up. Or underperform and lose big. We just don't know.
posted by Justinian at 9:59 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]

The West Wing allowed big chunks of Gen Xers (and folks just to either end of that gen) to imagine a fantasy world where politics were a matter of clashing ideals which would be resolved with logic and good hearts. This, as opposed to [whatever your description of our shared dark reality is these days] and I will never forgive it for that.

Oh my gods, I couldn't possibly agree more. The minute someone posts a video or meme from TWW on my feed, my esteem for them drops like a rock. It's like The Worst faux representation of reality.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 10:01 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

The site banner seems pretty appropriate today: USA MeFites, go vote (hide)
posted by mittens at 10:01 AM on November 5 [29 favorites]

Spaghetti and meatballs tonight. And garlic bread.

Nervous but ran into neighbors who voted today. 1+ hour wait in blue Ohio. Hoping Ohio can pull out some magic after the GOP fuckery with Issue 1 and our big push to secure abortion rights in the state constitution in 2023.

Take care of each other today. Thanks for being here, Blue.
posted by glaucon at 10:05 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]

Regarding the popular vote thing - Congratulations on your touchdown, we’re playing basketball unfortunately
posted by thedaniel at 10:05 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]

A lot of people took solace in The West Wing when GWB was president, leading the country down a dark place. I just moved abroad. About the same level of abdication, really.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 10:06 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]

I just can't get Rush's 'Bastille Day' out of my head today for some reason.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 10:06 AM on November 5

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

(thanks, carry on)
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:09 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]

Fuck the polls. It's the worst coverage ever. It's astrology, it's playing with chicken guts. Remember Pod Save America? I used to listen to that until it became a poll show, just three men discussing fantasy percentages of imaginary demographics. What do middle class white college educated women think about the Taylor Swift endorsement? Let's break these bullshit numbers down!

The numbers are bullshit, ok? Meaningless. It's lazy journalism. The guilty secret of pollsters is that their results come from the type of people that answer polls. People that do internet surveys and answer rando phonecalls.
posted by adept256 at 10:15 AM on November 5 [25 favorites]

Like are we talking about pollsters (people who admis polls) or modelers?

Pollsters are modelers. Response rates have become so abysmal that a lot of the action is in the reweighting they have to do to get back to something vaguely representative. Can't remember the link but Josh Clinton had a little piece on this in the last few weeks.

That's before the modeling that's inherent in any kind of likely voter screen. I really wish someone would try reporting results just directly weighted by each respondents' estimated probability of turnout.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 10:16 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

Here Alan Lichtman explains on CNN's Insight with Haslinda Amin why he continues to predict that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz win this election.

I lost the link where Walz himself interviews Lichtman but will post it when I find it. But be my guest if one of you finds it first. It was a very interesting discussion.
posted by y2karl at 10:17 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]

Just a moment here to raise a toast to all of my fellow deluded assholes who thought that if they could just prove TFG had committed a bunch of crimes then maybe he would be in jail and/or not run.

That was some tasty fantasizing we did, y'all!

(sigh)
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:17 AM on November 5 [30 favorites]

I just looked back and realized that the 2020 results weren't called until Saturday of the week of voting. I had completely forgotten that.
posted by paper chromatographologist at 10:18 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]

Am I the only one who hates how a nationwide election boils down to one state and then to some bellwether county in that state and then in that county down to those who remained undecided? It's like one person's indigestion could decide the election.
posted by dances_with_sneetche".. So let's look at the amygdala.."
posted by pepcorn at 10:20 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]

It felt like it was several Saturdays later.

I remember going out on my front porch when it was announced and our nice neighbor across the street walked out onto hers at the same time and jubilantly threw her arms in the air and went, “YES! FUCK. YES!!!!”

We kind of stared at each other smiling for a minute then I went back inside. What a day.
posted by glaucon at 10:21 AM on November 5 [12 favorites]

Fuck the polls. It's the worst coverage ever. It's astrology, it's playing with chicken guts.

On a related note, Fox News had a fortune teller on doing a tarot reading to try and divine Trump's future.

Her first card for Trump, the 5 of Cups drawn upright, signifies a sense of "loss, grief, unwelcome change, disappointment, and/or emotional suffering."
posted by delfin at 10:27 AM on November 5 [36 favorites]

For him that could describe either a loss or a win.
posted by star gentle uterus at 10:29 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]

Semi-related... working on an AskMe. Here's what I have so far:

Title: OH MY GAWD
Question: Holy shit y'all, how do I even today? WTF WTF WTF how the hell. Chrisfuckingsakes, goddam goddam. [Hyperventilating noises]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:32 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]

busted_crayons: "checking the very comprehensive list of tags, we have "Taiwan" and "Ukraine" and we are still evidently aspiring to general concern about "HumanRights".

mods, can we at least pretend we give a fuck on any sort of consistent basis and add the "Palestine" tag that right now looks aggressively and pointedly omitted? not even asking for an "Israel" tag to match "Russia"."

Still catching up on this thread, but the tags are all mine. I usually do a pass at the very end, going through the post and adding topics as they appear. But after mostly finishing it last night, I added another round of news links eeearly this morning and didn't think to add more tags (hence no SNL, Texas, Vaccines, etc.). I'll try to update the list later when I'm not on my phone.
posted by Rhaomi at 10:34 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

I voted last Saturday, but my place of employment has a policy of letting people out to vote and leaving them clocked in while they do, so that's nice and several coworkers are taking advantage of it.

I'm still hoping I can avoid obsessively hitting refresh on the news sites tonight.
posted by sotonohito at 10:35 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]

DOT, there's a thread for that.

Ah, that helps.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:35 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]

a friend texted this to me from Threads, from Amy Siskind (not sure her sourcing)

amy_siskind
6m6 minutes ago
Holy cow! 🔥🔥🔥
Philadelphia is estimated to be at 71.3% of total 2020 turnout as of 11:17 AM EST
Votes So Far in 2024: 528,900
2020 Total Votes: 741,377

I believe PA counts early vote after 8pm, so whis would not include any of those 1.9 million votes, 56% of which came from registered Dems and 11% from independents.
posted by kensington314 at 10:36 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

I'm as anxious as many of you, and was certainly traumatized by 2016, but like I've said, things are quite different, now.

Agreed and I love that post, but I still don't get how things are a complete tie (supposedly) anyway after all of this?

I mean, yeah, but neither side can claim a majority without roping in a hefty chunk of the "undecided" fuckwits who mindlessly flip the switch back and forth between D & R based on vibes, what they heard at the water cooler, what was on SNL this week, and their mostly fictitious grasp of recent history and world politics.

Yeah, this, it's the people that care the least that get to decide for the rest of us. The fuck.
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:37 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

(Anyone wanting a little reassurance about the polls and how they're actually not very predictive these days may want to look at my MeFi Projects post, Problems with Polls, especially the stuff under "Looking at Other Data Instead of Polls." )

I haven't had a chance yet to add today's update from the poll nerds at electoral-vote.com, which includes this:

it is very hard to filter out biases, wishful thinking, etc. This said, neither one of us has particular confidence in the polls this year, which is why we commenced the series on issues/concerns with polling. And, truth be told, we would have written about five more items in that series, but we ran out of time. There are a lot of facts on the ground that are very difficult to reconcile with the polling. For example, what about Kamala Harris' much stronger ground game? What about Harris' (apparent) much greater enthusiasm, as indicated by raising over $1 billion, in particular? Are we really to believe that substantial numbers of Black and brown men moved in Trump's direction, after having voted for two Democrats (one of them a woman) in the past two cycles? How could Harris be doing substantially worse than Joe Biden, given the tail winds provided by the abortion issue?

The polls have been wrong a lot in the past few years. Here's hoping the actual results show a clear win (wins, up and down the ballot).
posted by kristi at 10:39 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]

Maybe we should have metafilter chat going for simple venting or connecting. (I see three people there, though they are not commenting recently, other than me.)
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:39 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]

I still don't get how things are a complete tie (supposedly) anyway after all of this?

I am not an extreme poll skeptic but I'm a soft poll skeptic, and whenever I look under the hood of a poll a lot of the efforts at "data science" have the more distinct feel of "darts thrown at a board." Caveat: I am not a statistician or modeler of any sort of data.

Anyway, I don't think we know things are a tie. I think the polls have created an epistemic sense that there is a tie, and we should all downgrade that sense to the status of shrug emoji. We'll know if it was a tie when the votes are counted. Til then we have the facts on the ground, of which there are many in both directions, and they are badly reported by most news sites, in favor of copy-pasting polling data.
posted by kensington314 at 10:41 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]

1. John Lewis Voting Rights Act
2. Four new supreme court seats (to match the 13 circuit districts)
3. Increase the size of the house to 650 representatives (reduces discrepancies between the smallest states and the largest states, and also improves the distribution of electoral votes)

4. Statehood for DC and Puerto Rico

Stop being fucking cowards and fight back.
posted by rikschell at 10:45 AM on November 5 [51 favorites]

The wildcard in Coup II is going to be Speaker Mike Johnson. There are possible ways he can mess with the electoral vote if particular states play shenanigans with their vote counting.

Just noting down that if America manages to vote well enough today, Mike Johnson will no longer be Speaker already, come January 6th. (The new congress gets seated on Jan. 3rd.)
posted by nobody at 10:45 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]

See also Eric Garcia in the Independent: I followed Harris and Trump round North Carolina. It’s clear to me who’s going to win
posted by y2karl at 10:46 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

Capitol Police: "Our officers just arrested a man who was stopped during our screening process at the Capitol Visitor Center (CVC). The man smelled like fuel, had a torch & a flare gun." I hope it will get no worse, but I fear it will. Thanks to the Capitol Police and all other law enforcement who are working to avert another Jan 6.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 10:47 AM on November 5 [20 favorites]

Fox News had a fortune teller on doing a tarot reading

Basically, we're living in a scene-by-scene remake of "Network", from 1976.
posted by gimonca at 10:48 AM on November 5 [18 favorites]

(4. Statehood for DC
5. Amend Jones Act to apply only to the continental 48 49 states
6. Statehood for PR if PR residents vote for it)
posted by thecaddy at 10:52 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]

Have we discussed on the blue the recent, low-key push to bring low information/apolitical male voters over to Harris by placing ads on Pornhub, et al. advising them that Trump (via Project 2025) intends to ban pornography?

Because that seems like it could be a sleeping giant.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:53 AM on November 5 [24 favorites]

Like are we talking about pollsters (people who admis polls) or modelers?

Pollsters are modelers. Response rates have become so abysmal that a lot of the action is in the reweighting they have to do to get back to something vaguely representative. Can't remember the link but Josh Clinton had a little piece on this in the last few weeks.

That's before the modeling that's inherent in any kind of likely voter screen. I really wish someone would try reporting results just directly weighted by each respondents' estimated probability of turnout.


That makes sense, and why so many of the polls are so close together.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 10:53 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]

RE: that Eric Garcia piece, reading that actually made me weep with anticipatory relief. If Harris actually wins NC (my poor embattled state), I plan to lie down and cry for like a week.
posted by rikschell at 10:53 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]

I voted in a presidential election today for the first time (I became a US citizen in Jan 2021, though I've been living in the US since the 90s). I'm in the bluest of blue counties in the bluest of blue states so my vote won't move any needles but I got the sticker and the pen and the selfie. I'm going to a bar later with my partner because he wants to be with people if the news is bad (though I know we likely won't know tonight).
posted by matcha action at 10:55 AM on November 5 [31 favorites]

My husband and I live in Washington and found some third-party voters in Pennsylvania to vote swap with. So that's two more Harris votes in Pennsylvania from us, and two more votes for some obscure Socialist in Washington from our vote-swapping partners who were delighted with the opportunity to vote for a candidate who didn't even make it onto the ballot in their state.

Other than that, we both voted a straight Dem ticket despite that feeling very weird after 20+ years of Libertarian Party activism. But we know how to prioritize: Defeat fascism now, bicker about tax policy later.
posted by Jacqueline at 10:55 AM on November 5 [26 favorites]

On Tyranny: Twenty lessons from the Twentieth Century by Timothy Snyder. It's a bus-stop read about resisting tyranny. Well worth a read for what we need to do on Wednesday, and Thursday, and all the days, regardless of the outcome. Youtube series narrated by the author.

Lesson titles for the unclicking:

1. Do not obey in advance.
2. Defend institutions.
3. Beware the one-party state.
4. Take responsibility for the face of the world.
5. Remember professional ethics.
6. Be wary of paramilitaries.
7. Be reflective if you must be armed.
8. Stand out.
9. Be kind to our language.
10. Believe in truth.
11 . Investigate.
12. Make eye contact and small talk.
13. Practice corporeal politics.
14. Establish a private life.
15. Contribute to good causes.
16. Learn from peers in other countries.
17. Listen for dangerous words.
18. Be calm when the unthinkable arrives.
19. Be a patriot.
20. Be as courageous as you can

I hope you find this as useful as I have. Timothy does great work but I would avoid reading Blood Lands at this moment.
posted by adept256 at 10:57 AM on November 5 [28 favorites]

And... Maggie Haberman shares where Trump campaign stands on Election Day tldr: they're sweating bullets.
posted by y2karl at 10:58 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]

I just looked back and realized that the 2020 results weren't called until Saturday of the week of voting. I had completely forgotten that.

I'm gonna need a bigger pizza.
posted by mazola at 10:59 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]

And more booze.
posted by jenfullmoon at 11:00 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

I chose to get a covid/flu double-vax last night so I'd guarantee feeling like absolute crap all day. It worked! I'm just having a miserable time and either that'll feel prophetic or waking up tomorrow (ish) to good news will feel like a total resurrection. Truly I am a genius (/sarcasm)
posted by Tomorrowful at 11:01 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]

Just noting down that if America manages to vote well enough today, Mike Johnson will no longer be Speaker already, come January 6th. (The new congress gets seated on Jan. 3rd.)


There are tactics that Johnson can employ before then, if he acts in concert with corrupt state legislatures. Elie Mystal laid out one version of it in a recent column; essentially, an R state lege would stall a Harris certification based on "obvious fraud," Johnson would refuse to do what Pelosi did in 2020 and allow for extension of certification deadlines, and Johnson would then shrug and say "That state failed to provide valid electors for any candidate, so they will not be counted."

It is not One Weird Trick that can simply flip the election with ease, of course. There are many other factors involved -- Governors, Secretaries of State, lawsuits, court rulings, and the necessity of complete buy-in from all of those involved in the theft. Not all Republicans on state legislatures will go along with every filthy stunt that Ivan Raiklin or Roger Stone can think up. The public outcry would be stupendous. There are plenty of people who favor Trump as POTUS who are not prepared to (quite literally) go to jail if a legal-coup attempt fails.

But one must never take their eyes completely off of bastards like these. Team Harris's lawyers certainly won't.
posted by delfin at 11:01 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]

Just voted in Philadelphia. We've been voting in the same location since 2012. There was a line out the door, which we've never seen here. And that's at 2pm local time.

Best of all, there was an ice cream truck parked out side giving out free cones to everyone with an I Voted sticker.
posted by Eddie Mars at 11:04 AM on November 5 [31 favorites]

As a Canadian living less than 10km from the border, I feel like I want to say something... but I'm not sure what. We're stressed up here too, but clearly it's not comparable to what you're going through. Those of us hiding up north will make it through the next four years regardless of what happens (with a bruise or several, but we'll survive), and I sincerely hope ya'll do too.

Hoping with all the hope I have that I will be celebrating with you all soon. I wish I could do more.
posted by cgg at 11:06 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

I am really looking forward to videos of Philladelphia residents dancing in the streets like in 2020.

Can we do this tonight or tomorrow, though? Took a while last time.
posted by ocschwar at 11:07 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]

In NC, Carrboro/Chapel Hill have long been safely blue but I'm telling you this year is different. Like Dems figured out there's a difference between "safely blue" and "huge turnout blue because we're winning this fucking state."

Doug Emhoff was in Carrboro 2 weeks ago. My daughter's school dismissal was messed up on Friday because Jill Biden was in Carrboro. Democrats aren't fucking around with NC, they are taking it.

Apologies for my language, I swear when I'm nervous or drinking.

(Tofu Tuesday is already the best day to get Carrburritos, so that's just a cherry on top, thivaia)
posted by jermsplan at 11:08 AM on November 5 [27 favorites]

Just voted in Philadelphia. We've been voting in the same location since 2012. There was a line out the door, which we've never seen here. And that's at 2pm local time.

Per this person who claims to be getting info from a friend in the Harris campaign in DC, some parts of Philly were already at 100% of 2020 turnout by just after lunchtime. Also, turnout demographics are looking like 2022 everywhere.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 11:10 AM on November 5 [21 favorites]

If Democrats manage to take the house (and get seated as the new majority) then electoral vote count shenanigans become very difficult as Speaker Jeffries can just decide not to count votes and let Harris as VP become president on March 4. (Amendment 12).

If Republicans hold on to the house I will be very nervous if it is at all close.

PS. Y'all are making me miss Carrboro.
posted by being_quiet at 11:10 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]

Apologies for my language, I swear when I'm nervous or drinking.

so which is it? :)
I know: Why not both?
posted by martin q blank at 11:11 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]

Am I the only one who hates how a nationwide election boils down to one state and then to some bellwether county in that state and then in that county down to those who remained undecided?

Don't forget, our health care was saved by one vote in Congress.
posted by Melismata at 11:11 AM on November 5 [17 favorites]

I am really looking forward to videos of Philladelphia residents dancing in the streets like in 2020. Can we do this tonight or tomorrow, though? Took a while last time.

I think she's going to crush him so hard that it's a clear Harris victory this evening.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 11:13 AM on November 5 [20 favorites]

If anyone needs a pick-me-up tonight, something to watch other than election coverage, I would like to recommend the film Becky and its even more delightful sequel The Wrath of Becky (which you can skip straight to, if you like). These are films about violent Neo-Nazis who make the mistake of fucking with Becky, the world's angriest, most vicious, most vindictive teenage girl.

They're like the Home Alone movies if instead of two bumbling burglars, it had the villains from Green Room, and if instead of Kevin McAllister tricking them into stepping on nails, a cackling teenage girl brutally murdered them.

So it's a good time.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:13 AM on November 5 [25 favorites]

Stop being fucking cowards and fight back.

Much will come down to the Senate. If the Republicans reclaim the majority, none of the above will happen at least until the next election.

If the Democrats hold, which I hope, the good news is that Manchin and Sinema are gone, and Sinema for one will have lost her seat for blocking legislation favorable to Democrats.

I hope another lavishly funded gadfly does not emerge to deny the Democrats a governing majority.
posted by Gelatin at 11:14 AM on November 5 [12 favorites]

I voted in a presidential election today for the first time (I became a US citizen in Jan 2021, though I've been living in the US since the 90s).

Thank you, fellow citizen!

And to the rest of you (all) who voted.
posted by Gelatin at 11:16 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]

ProPublica (@ProPublica@newsie.social)

It’s Election Day! ProPublica reporters live & work in 26 states. Today, our reporters are on the ground, on the lookout for what’s going right and what isn’t.

Got a tip? Contact us at propublica.org/tips

You can also text, call or Signal message us: 917-512-0201

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:18 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]

Agreed and I love that post, but I still don't get how things are a complete tie (supposedly) anyway after all of this?

I've said for a while now (if not here) that Trump is the only reason this race is close. Perceptions and feelings about the economy are still really sour, mostly because there are a LOT of people whose earnings have been knocked back a decade or more by a few years of bad inflation.

This is a year much like 2022 that should have been at least a low-grade blowout for the Republicans but, like then, they fucked themselves.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 11:19 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]

A blog post that prompted Discourse Blog to say 'I’m not sure what the point of this is, except to demonstrate conclusively on the eve of an enormously important election that the voting public is comprised of the dumbest people you could possibly imagine':

How Americans think fictional characters would vote in 2024 (YouGov)
posted by box at 11:24 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]

The electoral college realistically won't go away, but uncapping the House of Representatives from the current limit of 435 can solve its most glaring problem (and only requires passing a law, not an amendment). I don't have a link handy to the analysis, but someone re-tallied electoral votes for every presidential election under the assumption that the House were sized with the cube root of the population (which would put it upper 600s / low 700s for now). With that apportionment, every electoral vote agrees with the popular vote. Uncap the House!
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 11:25 AM on November 5 [29 favorites]

Perceptions and feelings about the economy are still really sour, mostly because there are a LOT of people whose earnings have been knocked back a decade or more by a few years of bad inflation.

I do think if Harris loses, inflation is a large part of it. Democratic muckety-mucks seem to genuinely believe that a decrease in the rate of inflation means a decrease in prices, and no voter believes that, because most voters actually experience all prices as a source of pain. The inflation ain't her fault obviously.

Agree with GCUSaFoG that Trump probably was the worst possible Republican candidate in this environment. So I still think Harris will eke it out.
posted by kensington314 at 11:25 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]

PS. Y'all are making me miss Carrboro.

With Elmo's gone, is it really Carrboro?
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 11:26 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]

BTW, I know we had a thread on this already, but: If you're looking for a place to track results tonight, let me recommend DecisionDeskHQ.

Ignore the cheesy name; they have some of the smartest people in data journalism and are sort of the contract-out elections data analysis house for a lot of news organizations.
posted by martin q blank at 11:30 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]

Democratic muckety-mucks seem to genuinely believe that a decrease in the rate of inflation means a decrease in prices, and no voter believes that

The trouble is that deflation is much, much worse than inflation, even if it feels better from a sticker-shock-at-the-grocery-store perspective.

The TLDR is that when you have a change to aggregate demand prices must move to offset this - including wages. Upward changes aren't really any issue, because hey, who doesn't like to be paid more (even if it's just nominal)? However, individuals are extremely hesitant to accept lower nominal wages and this "stickiness" results in employers having to fire people because they cannot afford to retain them at those elevated wages, so in return you end up with significant unemployment. This can also cause a vicious cycle because if people have little to no income because they lost their job they will be more hesitant to spend and this can cause a greater shock to aggregate demand.

(via)
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 11:30 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

Does anyone know if Jimmy Carter was able to cast his vote? Last I heard, he was trying to stay alive long enough to make it happen.
posted by Larry David Syndrome at 11:30 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]

ProPublica seems pretty great. Pretty sure we give them money every year.

OTOH, I keep getting messages on my phone/email about how TFG is outspending us and can you chip in? WTF

It's over, mostly. There is very little money that needs to be spent at this point. Just, make the notifications stop! (don't text back "STOP", just block and wait for the next number...)

The amount of emails I have gotten from Kamala, Tim, Barack, just wow. I assume we are on first name basis now.

Disappointed he didn't show up at Homecoming/Parents weekend. I was there. Would have been pretty hard to deal with if I were hanging in the quad, waiting for my next class, and Barack and Michelle were just chillin there.

We're down to like 4 hours now? Going to be a long 4 hours. Not going to go pick up pizza.
posted by Windopaene at 11:31 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]

Jimmy Carter did manage to vote, yes.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:32 AM on November 5 [25 favorites]

Practice self-care today, y'all. I went with a meatless dog for lunch.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:32 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]

Jimmy Carter, at age 100, casts his 2024 ballot by mail (AP, Oct. 16)
posted by box at 11:32 AM on November 5 [24 favorites]

I do think if Harris loses, inflation is a large part of it. Democratic muckety-mucks seem to genuinely believe that a decrease in the rate of inflation means a decrease in prices,

The Dem messaging on this has been absolutely abysmal to the point of being outright insulting. They seem to have landed on a "you just don't get it, the economy is actually doing great" approach.

Like naw man, I don't give a shit that the rate of inflation is apparently back down to normal levels or that macroeconomic indicators show the economy is strong in the aggregate. I care that grocery shopping or buying supplies for my baby are expensive as fuck. Stop telling me I'm stupid for worrying about that.
posted by star gentle uterus at 11:32 AM on November 5 [18 favorites]

How Americans think fictional characters would vote in 2024

I'm as surprised as these people are that Calliou voted for Cornel West
posted by mcstayinskool at 11:33 AM on November 5 [12 favorites]

If memory serves me right Carter early voted, so yes, he made it. And hopefully he will live to see Harris win this election, as well.
posted by Gelatin at 11:33 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]

Well, I voted. I was a bit surprised to see a lady in a Harris shirt in my 80+% Trump voting location (I guess Trump/Harris apparel is OK in PA polling places). Unfortunately, my mother voted for Trump, which just reminded me that a reluctant vote for Trump counts just as much as an enthusiastic vote for Harris. I continue to be pessimistic.
posted by dirigibleman at 11:33 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]

Mailed in my ballot weeks ago. For dealing with my nerves today, my motto's going to be: "Drink early and drink often!"
posted by lock robster at 11:34 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]

Yeah, I was just going to post about self-care. (Not doing great btw)

Even if all the bad things happen, we will still be able to make things better. We need you to help!
posted by Windopaene at 11:34 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]

A Steve Kornacki Elections Feed (Bluesky)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:35 AM on November 5

My Mother Voted for Trump is a song title waiting to happen

punk? country?
posted by ginger.beef at 11:35 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]

Picking up my wife after work to go vote here in NC. Turnout in our county is usually pretty low, so I’m not expecting to have a long wait.
posted by Roger Pittman at 11:36 AM on November 5

The Dem messaging on this has been absolutely abysmal to the point of being outright insulting.

Harris talks about price gouging, the price of groceries, money for new parents, etc so I've found the messaging to be quite excellent. 🤟
posted by tiny frying pan at 11:37 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]

punk? country?

Punktry. Maybe like Mojo Nixon or something.
posted by grubi at 11:37 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]

Mrs. Example and I are dual citizens living here in the UK. We voted absentee a couple of months ago, so our work is done for now.

I never eat pizza (because I feel a little gross afterwards from the cheese), but we have ordered in and eaten pizza and have laid in a good supply of alcohol. There will be cookies later.

We've declared a moratorium tonight on our TV watching--no crime shows, no grim dramas, and absolutely no live streaming of election results (not least because it'll be really late and I have to work in the morning). The highlight of tonight's viewing is The Great British Bake Off. There may be a little Wallace and Gromit.

It's still not ideal circumstances, but I think we've managed as well as we can. Good luck to us all.
posted by Mr. Bad Example at 11:38 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]

My Mother Voted for Trump is a song title waiting to happen

punk? country?

Definitely punk. Specifically the Linda Lindas.
posted by susiswimmer at 11:38 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]

Hadn't thought of Mojo Nixon in a long time...
posted by Windopaene at 11:39 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]

I threw out the candy I was bolting. I used a single moment of strength to defeat countless moments of weakness. I will probably find a loud movie or viddy game later.
posted by seanmpuckett at 11:40 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]

I thought there was no light-hearted election analysis until I saw How Americans think fictional characters would vote in 2024. But to those 9 percent of respondents: No, Archie Bunker is not voting Harris.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 11:40 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]

My Mother Voted for Trump is a song title waiting to happen
punk? country?


Dread Zeppelin in Elvis impersonator voice to the tune of Immigrant Song.
posted by signal at 11:42 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]

But to those 9 percent of respondents: No, Archie Bunker is not voting Harris.

Neither are notorious Nazi-punchers Captain America or Indiana Jones voting for Trump FFS.
posted by signal at 11:42 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]

But to those 9 percent of respondents: No, Archie Bunker is not voting Harris.

I see your Archie and I raise you a 12% Knope for Trump. yyyyyyyyyyyyeahkNOPE
posted by mcstayinskool at 11:43 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]

punk? country?

Beat Farmers

my mom came out and voted for *****
hubba hubba hubba hubba hubba
posted by flabdablet at 11:43 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]

Hadn't thought of Mojo Nixon in a long time...

Well if you don’t have Mojo Nixon, your store could use some fixin
posted by aspersioncast at 11:46 AM on November 5 [20 favorites]

Dread Zeppelin in Elvis impersonator voice to the tune of Immigrant Song.

They way they sneak 'Exodus' into the song kills me every time I hear it.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 11:47 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]

the good news is that Manchin and Sinema are gone

I have good news and bad news!

Good news: Dan Osborn has a chance of winning the Nebraska Senate race as an independent.

Bad news: He's said he "won't caucus with Democrats or Republicans", and he could be a pivotal vote in an evenly-divided Senate. Whether he becomes the new Manchinema remains to be seen.
posted by gimonca at 11:47 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]

The big thing I took away from the "fictional characters voting" article is that even Trump supporters think that the Joker would vote for Trump. I have no clue what that means, but it surely means something.

(Also, it is surely not the case that every villain would vote for Trump. Hannibal Lecter would clearly be a Harris voter.)
posted by heraplem at 11:47 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

It's not Carrburritos, but Roxy the dog was pretty pleased to get a Sunrise biscuit this morning. I think the most interesting sign I've seen around here is a skeleton holding a sign that said, "The other guys are CREEPY!"
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 11:48 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]

Blanche Deveraux is too high and Hank Hill is too low.
posted by biblioPHL at 11:48 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]

Hadn't thought of Mojo Nixon in a long time...

He passed this year. RIP. A frikkin' legend gone too early.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 11:48 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]

90% of “inflation” was businesses and landlords jacking up margins because “inflation”:

profits vs wages, 2009 = 100

I’m on my phone so can’t be arsed to create a “jobs” graph, but on the national aggregate level the job market has never been so favorable (I suspect the boomer retirement wave is a very nice tailwind now)…
posted by torokunai at 11:49 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]

My Mama Voted for Trump and My Daddy Burnt All the Books is the bleakest Mojo Nixon timeline
posted by ginger.beef at 11:50 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]

I voted last week, donated all summer, can't work at the polls... It's out of my control.

I have a pretty simple schedule for today. Dog park, food shop, home. Media blackout until midnight. I picked up the new Neal Stephenson book at the library, going to get General Tso chicken for dinner, phone off.

We started a pool with friends, "What Time Will Trump Declare Victory?" One dollar for every one minute, I put five down on between 11:01 and 11:06.

The big bottle of rum and a two liter bottle of cola is stashed in the fridge in case of emergency.

Thanks to chavenet for reminding me of "King of America," it's going on the soundtrack of tonight.
posted by Marky at 11:50 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]

That 12% of people who think Leslie Knopes is voting for Trump haven't watched the show or aren't following the campaign, just wow, easiest one of them to figure out.

Also disagree with those who thinks Ron Swanson is voting for Trump. I mean McCain, Bush or guy with the binders, it's plausible, but not Trump. Swanson is the fantasy version of a Libertarian, I don't really believe people like that exists, but the character was principled, and cherished honesty and hard work....in the end, that character isn't voting for Trump.

Also Indiana Jones punches nazis he doesn't vote for then.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 11:52 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]

Because that seems like it could be a sleeping giant.

I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and give him a terrible boner.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:54 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]

I am strangely not nervous. It's a beautiful fall day, kids have the day off school, Americans are turning out in big numbers to cast their votes, and I voted last week. A million things can happen in the next few weeks, most of which are out of my hands. What if Trump wins? What if Kamala wins and Congressional shenanigans ensue? What if there's violence?

I don't know, but I don't see why I need to gird myself for any of that today, on Election Day. I refuse to let pollsters and white supremacists and the uninformed live rent-free in my head on Election Day. I refuse to let Wolf Blitzer drive me to drink.

We'll see who wins this motherfucker, and what kind of country we're going to live in, when every vote is counted. I can wait.

So today in lieu of voting I got a haircut, because I want to look good for tomorrow, whatever that looks like.
posted by swift at 11:55 AM on November 5 [19 favorites]

I was listening to some local American talk radio (out of Buffalo) yesterday and today, and the MAGA hosts seemed...subdued? Resigned? A lot of loosely-assembled blather about the value of decorum and civility - the last thing you'd expect from these types.

We might have something here, mates.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 11:58 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]

Dick Van Dyke is still with us at 98 and posts a Youtube message for us.
posted by JHarris at 11:59 AM on November 5 [41 favorites]

90% of “inflation” was businesses and landlords jacking up margins because “inflation”:

This is at least 90% false. The graph doesn't tell us much because profits are a much smaller share of the economy than wages. There was an increase in corporate profits, but the main drivers of inflation were "sharp increases in global commodity prices and sectoral price spikes driven by a combination of pandemic-induced kinks in supply chains and a huge shift in demand during the pandemic to goods from services." In other words, during the pandemic it was hard to get stuff, so people bid up prices in response to the shortages. (There were other causes, and there is still plenty of debate over the relative contributions.)

At the same time, we are in a period of strong real wage growth - real meaning even after adjusting for inflation- and inflation is low and stable. Still, we endured a period of historically high inflation, so prices are higher than before, and people really hate high price levels.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 12:04 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]

Wow, that Dick Van Dyke video is amazing.
posted by Winnie the Proust at 12:05 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]

If all these businesses strangely all coordinated to jack up prices, why didn’t they do it earlier.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:07 PM on November 5

I refuse to let Wolf Blitzer drive me to drink.

He can drive me. That way my wife and I can drink instead of one of us having to be the designated driver. (I kid. I'll be doing my drinking at home where it's cheap and I don't have to be around people if the news is bad...)
posted by jzb at 12:08 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]

martin q blank: I know: Why not both?

Porque no los dos Equis?
posted by wenestvedt at 12:11 PM on November 5 [11 favorites]

swift

Totally the wrong link, let's try again...

Can't find the line I want from Being There, but...

"I like to watch, television..."
posted by Windopaene at 12:11 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

I think (hope) people that are into betting as a “market indicator” are much more likely to trend rightward.

From Prediction Markets Have an Elections Problem:

Money talks and bullshit walks, and prediction markets force people to put that money where their mouth is.

Some of the largest and most notable prediction markets to date have been around elections. The only problem? Prediction markets simply aren’t very good at political predictions.

There's basically a contingent that uses their money as "votes" rather than predictions, and unsurprisingly this crew leans conservative.

There's also some technical difficulties that make them complicated:

1. Pretty much every market contract different so arbitrage is way harder. It's not like buying wheat cheap in iowa and selling it dear in hawaii. More like buying pork in illinois and
2. People often don't understand what they're predicting. IEM's market has PRES24_WTA.rep at fifteen cents to win a dollar. Despite the name, WTA is not an electoral college outcome. The prospectus plainly states the contract is tied to the popular vote winner, and there's basically no way that's Trump. They've had to put up banners in the past about this when things looked catastrophically off.
3. Many informed participants are walled off. It's an open question whether US citizens can bet on politics like they can sports now. And in places where we can, like the IEM, there's a $500 cap.
4. Prediction markets have an implicit time component. You buy contracts now for a payoff later. Beyond the whole uncertainty of when Congress certifies the outcome (ugh), the further away the payoff is the more money you need to earn to break even vs the risk free rate of return. Which is substantially higher in 2024 than 2020. If the market is only off 3 percent of "correct," nobody will bother picking up those 3 pennies. I assume this shows up in spreads.
posted by pwnguin at 12:12 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]

I believe PA counts early vote after 8pm

Thankfully at least this election they can start when polls opened at 7am. Philadelphia will be counting 24/7. Dancing TBD
posted by sepviva at 12:13 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]

I am pretty sure I can take Wolf Blitzer in the Raiders of the Lost Ark Himalayan drinking game.

Well, at least until the Nazi's show up.
4 more hours? Sigh

EDIT: But as someone NOT DRINKING, the rest of you, don't. Bad drug
posted by Windopaene at 12:16 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]

My work involves a lot of local political advocacy especially with City Hall. Yesterday I posted my personal voting priorities, including putting the sole progressive running for mayor as #1. This should surprise absolutely no one. This morning, I noticed that our current mayor had *unfriended* me on fb. Which, her deep vindictive pettiness is one of the many reasons I can't support her reelection - there have been a few news articles but it is so much worse than that - and this is just a classically petty example of it. It's her professional fb account (I can see the 90+ mutual friends on there) and it's mostly just hilarious to me.

If you live in SF and haven't yet voted, please don't vote for her (also I answer questions and explain any of the things on SF and CA ballots as needed - ask away.)
posted by gingerbeer at 12:17 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]

Neither are notorious Nazi-punchers Captain America or Indiana Jones voting for Trump

Not to mention that Batman isn't voting for a convicted felon over a former prosecutor, and Cliff Huxtable isn't voting for a guy who was sued for racial discrimination in housing over an HBCU grad. Apparently a lot of people who think they know these characters actually don't!
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 12:18 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]

But to those 9 percent of respondents: No, Archie Bunker is not voting Harris.

TIL 91% of people don't remember Archie Bunker's Place
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:18 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]

Indiana Jones vote for a modern republican??? Who TF would think that?
posted by Liquidwolf at 12:22 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]

The funniest entry on that "how fictional characters would vote" list is clearly the one where (slaveowner) Scarlett O'Hara is classified as being a tossup.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 12:25 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]

Frasier Crane is canonically a democrat voter, it was a whole episode
posted by BungaDunga at 12:25 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]

No better time to go listen to Billy Bragg and Wilco tearing it up on Woody Guthrie's All You Fascists (Bound To Lose). Good luck to us all.
posted by Sing Or Swim at 12:27 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]

The funniest entry on that "how fictional characters would vote" list is clearly the one where (slaveowner) Scarlett O'Hara is classified as being a tossup.

even funnier is that it's a tossup because more democrats think she'd vote Harris and more republicans think she'd vote Trump.
posted by BungaDunga at 12:28 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

I just placed a bet on Kamala Harris. I have never betted on anything in my whole life, but I can't donate to American politicians, so I'm trying to move the needle in some other way.
The thing is, if Trump wins, we can't escape. There is nowhere to go.
I have no idea how the future will be for my children and grandchildren, only that it will be wrong.
posted by mumimor at 12:28 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]

Frasier Crane is canonically a democrat voter, it was a whole episode

That I don't want to see an accurately imagined sequel to, given the drift of such Boomers who are not TV characters. Maher, Miller, etc.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:30 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

I suppose the silver lining of my boss landing early from her flight and there being a massive cock-up with the car service which caused her to have an enormous hissy fit is that it distracts me from....this.

(At least that's what I'm telling myself.)
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 12:31 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]

On the 'how fictional characters would vote' train:

How Batman's Rogues Gallery would vote:

Joker: Votes for maximum chaos, so voting for Trump. But not with much enthusiasm- the joke's played out.

Harley Quinn: surreptitiously voting for Harris and hoping her pudding doesn't find out.

The Penguin: voting for Trump, after all, he's been promised a pardon for his campaign contributions.

The Riddler: voting for Harris and insufferably smug about how she's 'the smart candidate'.

Poison Ivy: unless Jill Stein is a chemically controlled pawn of Ivy, she's voting for Harris. Probably while plotting the assasination of Jill Stein.

Mr. Freeze: worried about global warming and health care and therefore voting for Harris.

Scarecrow: voting for Trump because there will be so much anxiety as well as captive experimental subjects if Trump wins.

Bane: Technically an illegal immigrant and unlikely to vote. But if he did, he'd be the one illegal Central American (Caribbean) immigrant that all the nativists will be pointing to in their claims about illegals voting.

Ra'as al Ghul: This sinister immortal who is plotting the downfall of civilization obviously sees a vote for Trump as the accelerationist choice.

Mad Hatter: voting for Trump. Jarvis Tetch and Jeffrey Epstein and DJT have a history together....

Clayface: voting for Harris, because he knows just how much of a phony Trump is.
posted by LeRoienJaune at 12:34 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]

That I don't want to see an accurately imagined sequel to, given the drift of such Boomers who are not TV characters. Maher, Miller, etc.

I think Frasier'd go Obama > Trump > Biden > Harris
posted by BungaDunga at 12:40 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]

Joker is 100% voting for RFK Jr
posted by Phobos the Space Potato at 12:42 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]

I voted. There was a line that stretched out around the building. A retired African-American amputee (a military veteran) came to vote in-person because it was important. The elderly Jewish monitor gave me extra "I voted" stickers for my children to encourage future voters. "If not them, then who?" He said.

I don't have the time or the energy to fight all of the clear-eyed cynics who are strutting around saying that they expect Trump to win. I prayed as hard this morning as I did four years ago, and four years before that. I grew up in Mississippi and have seen what the GOP wants the rest of the nation to become. I remember the chaos of Trump's first term. I remember the anger I felt when Bush v Gore was decided.

God bless the United States and may we as a nation make the correct choice today.
posted by gwydapllew at 12:44 PM on November 5 [39 favorites]

Meme round-up, mostly from yours truly with some extra favorites from Lemmy:

Fuckin' weirdos
Someone's ears are burning
Burning it all down
Press "F" to shove a veteran
Birtherism vs. Burgerism
They said she could be anything.
♫ I love ya, Trump's health plan, you're always two weeks away ♫
Trump-Harris debate mood board
broken record 2: electric boogaloo
The Concept of a Plan (ft. Donald Trump)
"IS SHE TALKING ABOUT ME?"
On Message
The ratio of bullshit to fact is too big
JD reaches out to America's females
"Hello, handsome."
Elon Musk photographed jumping for joy at another rally
"Deep down you long for a cold-hearted Republican to lower taxes, brutalize criminals, and rule you like a king"
Spare me the crocodile tears
Flooding the zone? Better call Ann
the poor fools
The Needle and the damage done
It ain't over till it's over
*jingles keys*
Barney says there's a 50% chance Trump wins PepeSylvia
MAGA not beating the "weird" allegations
We can't keep getting away with this

posted by Rhaomi at 12:44 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]

I am just hoping that the women of child-bearing age will be like, "Um, fuck you old white men."

Could be a lot. Which would be a landslide.

Just can't see how anyone but horrible shitheads would vote for TFG, over an actual human. But, here we are. Fingers crossed friends.
posted by Windopaene at 12:50 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]

That I don't want to see an accurately imagined sequel to, given the drift of such Boomers who are not TV characters. Maher, Miller, etc

You might hate him but Maher has always been very much a Democrat. Dennis Miller is not the same.
posted by Liquidwolf at 12:50 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]

The funniest entry on that "how fictional characters would vote" list is clearly the one where (slaveowner) Scarlett O'Hara is classified as being a tossup

Seems like she'd just be very confused at what "Democrat" and "Republican" now mean and stand for.

How Batman's Rogues Gallery would vote:

They wouldn't, they're all convicted felons and Ra's al Ghul is also not a citizen.
posted by star gentle uterus at 12:50 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]

That "Elon Musk photographed jumping for joy at another rally" really is fantastic.
posted by wenestvedt at 12:51 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]

Frasier Crane would not vote for a person who eats well-done steaks with ketchup and McDonald's cheeseburgers. He is, I am convinced, far too much of a snob.

Would he have voted for Clinton? For Obama? For Harris? For Biden? I am not willing to hazard a guess. But Trump, no.
posted by Jeanne at 12:55 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]

Yesterday’s XKCD perfectly expresses how I’ve been feeling about uncertainty for the past few months.
posted by mbrubeck at 12:57 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]

Frasier Crane would not vote for a person who eats well-done steaks with ketchup

Yes. This, I concede.

You might hate him but Maher has always been very much a Democrat. Dennis Miller is not the same.

They're not the same but today's Maher is unrecognizable from PI. Or, maybe I never really saw him. Either way, he's of a type.

And Miller's transformation was no less dramatic, it was just around 9-11.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:02 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]

I'm sitting in the rental car taking a short nap. I've been at this Philadelphia polling place doing poll observation volunteering since 6:30 am, and I'm resting a bit before the afterwork rush. I'm not really sure how this is going to go, and I'll probably be too tired to watch whatever results tonight.

Hey friend listen, I know the world is really scary right now but...

...the future is unknowable and will be determined by how hard we fight now for a loving world.
posted by AlSweigart at 1:04 PM on November 5 [33 favorites]

"I am just hoping that the women of child-bearing age will be like, "Um, fuck you old white men."

My therapist was in a cheerful mood and said that, approximately, much more polite though. She said older ladies would definitely be out in full force and anyone whose life is as risk. She also said I was sensible for staying on BC (people have commented it's pointless for me since I'm unwanted romantically), Just In Case.
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:04 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]

Frasier Crane would not vote for a person who eats well-done steaks with ketchup and McDonald's cheeseburgers. He is, I am convinced, far too much of a snob.

Trump once sat down to a New York slice with a knife and fork. Which is probably what he thinks a classy guy like Frasier would do. Such a fucking weird guy.
posted by adept256 at 1:05 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]

At the moment I am much less stressed about this election than the previous two. No logic to it. Either emotional fatigue or straight-up dissociation.
posted by JohnFromGR at 1:06 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]

Canadian here, wishing all of you the best with this massive anxiety fest today.

As some of you know I have posted various iterations of Trump over the years here, and I have made a screenshot of all the portraits I've don of him, which is over 40 now.

My god, one day we will be finally free of him and that will be a glorious day indeed, hopefully it happens today, though his baleful, malignant influence is going to poison society for years to come I imagine.
We feel it here, too, in Canada, he gives the worst we have a set of permissions to be public about that. The Fuck Trudeau crowd here, as one example, is very heavily MAGA influenced, and I wish it would stop.

Anyways, my best from North of 49.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 1:07 PM on November 5 [17 favorites]

Trump once sat down to a New York slice with a knife and fork. Which is probably what he thinks a classy guy like Frasier would do. Such a fucking weird guy.

He's got the out-of-touch rich person cluelessness of Mr. Burns and the slob factor/intellect of Homer Simpson.
posted by Liquidwolf at 1:07 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]

You might hate him but Maher has always been very much a Democrat.

Hahahaha no he has not. He's the glibbest of glibertarians and has only gotten worse with time.
posted by Gadarene at 1:08 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]

One of the low-key funniest things about this election is how Donald Trump literally got shot -- with an iconic bloody photo, too -- and not only did it barely sway polls at the time, but it had the cultural staying power of the first Avatar movie. We're ten hours and 300+ comments into this thread, and I'm the first to mention it. Heck, I didn't even think to mention in the post, and I was the one who posted the news here in the first place.

America just doesn't care for this dude very much. Hopefully it will be enough, in the right places.
posted by Rhaomi at 1:10 PM on November 5 [33 favorites]

I really don’t know how to feel right now. It seems weird to me that class isn’t canceled today. No one is focused and everyone is snapping at each other and fighting over weird shit. My partner is worried about violence in the streets if Harris wins and Trump makes a speech that the election was stolen. I have solemnly promised to be home before election results start coming out. The kid has asked for an emotional support friend to be over while we watch, which we have granted. Every nerve is jangling. I feel like Harris will definitely win the popular vote, but I’m just not sure about the electoral college. And it’s a weird feeling being so anxious when I don’t even like her! Yet every piece of food I eat is tasteless and I can’t wait for today to be over.
posted by corb at 1:11 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]

I voted when the polls opened this morning as I usually do, and it was busier than I have ever seen it. We elect some real doozies here in Alaska, but consistently have the best stickers in the nation (I love this year's formline stickers). I am hoping for at least a split legislature and for our conservative Democratic congresswoman to win re-election. Most importantly, I am hoping that we defeat the Republican-backed ballot proposition that would repeal the ranked-choice voting system that elected said conservative Democrat, and has moderated our worst instincts in the state legislature.

Our local schools are doing remote learning for the day today since so many schools are polling places, so I can work from home today. I made a routine appointment for Wednesday months ago solely so I didn't have to spend all day putting on a show for 200 middle school kids when I didn't know what emotional state I was going to be in, and am feeling very smart for doing that.
posted by charmedimsure at 1:14 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]

Here in Denmark, the tradition is to eat pork on Election Day. Normally, I'm with my family, and we make US Election Day special by making sandwiches, because we all know how the US elections are important for our European security.
But this year, because of my crushed shoulder, I'm alone, so I've had bacon butties for tea. Theoretically, I'm a jew. But practically I'm a Yorkshire lass and a bacon butty is the comfort I need.
Come on Americans, you. can do this
posted by mumimor at 1:15 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]

WaPo: Republicans call to ‘avenge’ Peanut the squirrel’s death at ballot box

WHUT
You can't parody these people.
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:15 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]

I'm shocked that 21% of people think Miles Morales would vote for Trump, even if his dad is a cop.

Indiana Jones, on the other hand...while he punched a lot of Nazis, he would also have faced cancellation for pursuing an underage Marion and his inappropriate relationships with his students.

Based on what we've seen in the last few years, I could see Indy on a podcast with Jordan Peterson and Russel Brand complaining about cancel culture and supporting Trump.
posted by Dalekdad at 1:17 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]

My partner is worried about violence in the streets if Harris wins and Trump makes a speech that the election was stolen.

I've made my housemates promise me we can take the Harris/Walz yard signs down tonight no matter what the outcome. Magas are definitely gonna Maga, whichever way it goes, and I really don't want any part of it.

(I live with a friend who is the Democrat equivalent of a full-blown Q-anon Trumpetarian. We have Harris signs blocking the view of other Harris signs out there. I mean there are worse problems to have, obviously! But I'd really rather not have my house "accidentally" catch fire here in our 50/50 town in our deep blue state.)
posted by invincible summer at 1:19 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

jenfullmoon: "WaPo: Republicans call to ‘avenge’ Peanut the squirrel’s death at ballot box

WHUT
You can't parody these people."

"I can excuse racism, but I draw the line at animal cruelty."
posted by Rhaomi at 1:20 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]

The squirrel story does not surprise me since Trump supporters seem to have a preturnatural inability to understand how viral diseases work.
posted by East14thTaco at 1:26 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]

On poll clerk break. It’s been amazing and moving to see so many first time voters with their proud parents!
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 1:26 PM on November 5 [31 favorites]

This just in, Trump will shut down X if Harris wins!

Talk about threatening us with a good time....
posted by invincible summer at 1:28 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]

All of a sudden, Montana — and Senate control — is slipping away from Republicans

Stephen Leuchtman, polling director for Pharos Research Group, tweeted Monday that his firm had conducted one last poll of the Montana race, concluding on Sunday. It found Tester four percentage points ahead of Sheehy, according to Leuchtman, who did not release the full poll results (his firm does privately commissioned polling), just within the survey’s 4.97 percent margin of error.

It’s far from a certain thing, but the poll does fall roughly in line with two other surveys taken in mid-to-late October which found the gap between the two candidates shrinking rapidly from earlier in the year. One, from The Hill/Emerson College, found the Republican leading by three percentage points — within the margin of error — while a second from the University of Montana - Billings survey found the race tied.

Sheehy’s polling collapse and potential defeat on Tuesday could very well end up being a casualty of his failure to provide a clear explanation and proof for a scandal that has followed him for months: the case of the bullet wound in his right arm, which Sheehy maintains was suffered during a deployment to Afghanistan.

posted by Rhaomi at 1:33 PM on November 5 [17 favorites]

Well, Elon is apparently spending Election Night with Trump so that would be a possibility but Elon is so addicted to posting I can't see it happening.

Also, apparently all the political ads on twitter are all Republican ads. I'm not in the US so I wouldn't know.
posted by LostInUbe at 1:34 PM on November 5

On poll clerk break. It’s been amazing and moving to see so many first time voters with their proud parents!

And a little heartbreaking hanging out in /r/Voting where as of last night every third post was "first time voter... how can I prevent my abuser parents from knowing how I'm voting?"
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 1:35 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]

He's the glibbest of glibertarians and has only gotten worse with time.

A little l libertarian who recognizes what a complete trash fire Trump is and keeps giving more money than I make in an entire election cycle to Dems because he doesn't actually want to see the world burn.

What makes him most difficult is that he refuses to stop bringing even the nutters on his show, so he ends up platforming fascists out of a conception of the First Amendment only slightly more sane and slightly less self serving than that held by Elon Musk.

I'd actually agree with his position on that in normal times, but bringing people on who supported the insurrection and attempted coup is a bridge too far.
posted by wierdo at 1:35 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

Class canceled on account of election because literally no one can concentrate. What the fuck is going on with this squirrel? Is this reality or am I having a stroke?
posted by corb at 1:39 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]

I wouldn't put much stock in the Montana poll: "FWIW the firm that conducted this (Pharos Research Group) has some major red flags"
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 1:40 PM on November 5

corb: "Class canceled on account of election because literally no one can concentrate. What the fuck is going on with this squirrel? Is this reality or am I having a stroke?"

Come for the unlicensed wildlife pet, stay for the surprise OnlyFans account.
posted by Rhaomi at 1:42 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]

The Harris campaign sounds a lot like the Obama campaign did around this time on Election Day in 2012. 💙🌊💙🗳

Let’s GO!!
posted by edithkeeler at 1:45 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

Oh so NOW the Republicans decide they don't like murdering pets?
posted by Pope Guilty at 1:50 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]

Lots of stories of high turnout. That's good to hear.
posted by ryanrs at 1:51 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]

I'm just home from sitting outside the polls a Democratic table with info. Harris voters are totally pumped up and I had the most Democrats stop by our table than the other three elections I've been at (I've been doing this since 2019, Virginia has elections every year). Virginia allows same day registration with a provisional ballot and in our teeny tiny precinct, there were over 20 same day registrations.

I am nauseously optimistic.
posted by bluesky43 at 1:52 PM on November 5 [26 favorites]

There's a tagline for sure.
.
posted by y2karl at 1:54 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]

Oh so NOW the Republicans decide they don't like murdering pets?

Wait, wait, if we add miniature American flags to the bill and name it for the squirrel maybe we can get them to end qualified immunity for any raid on which an animal is killed!
posted by corb at 1:55 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]

The Peanut thing is so so so stupid. The only reason MAGA latched onto it was because it happened in the evil state of New York (AKA: a state Trump will never win).

Luckily for them, there isn't enough time for stupid pet tricks or else we'd be seeing the headline "Wild squirrel brought in by supporter bites several people at Trump rally. Official urge people to get tested for rabies."
posted by LostInUbe at 1:56 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]

To counter the Peanut stuff, there's Nibi the beaver, saved from certain death, but, oh, Nibi was pardoned by the Democratic governor of a deep-blue state, so obviously doesn't count.
posted by adamg at 1:58 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]

We're not in the States, and so won't be voting.

Instead, we'll be preparing a batch of Tim Walz' hot dish before we sit down to watch the chaos sorry election footage unfold.
posted by The Outsider at 1:58 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]

There is no human test for rabies, if potentially exposed I think you just have to get the (expensive) shots. I hope Trump doesn't catch wind of that story or in this timeline he will say some garbage at his rallies that will lead to many exposures followed by a shortage of immunoglobulin.
posted by being_quiet at 2:02 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]

I will sometimes feed the squirrels on my deck some peanuts. I quickly realized they can’t really tell the difference between a finger and a peanut without giving it a taste.

Not dead yet.
posted by funkaspuck at 2:04 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

If anyone needs a pick-me-up tonight, something to watch other than election coverage, I would like to recommend the film Becky and its even more delightful sequel The Wrath of Becky

I was previously unaware of these films. DirtyOldTown, you may have saved my family's evening.
posted by nickmark at 2:06 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

As someone who took the old school rabies vaccine in the 80s, lmao that the wildlife tech was afraid of the modern shot. You could have had rabies immunity superpowers, you squeamish prick.
posted by ryanrs at 2:06 PM on November 5

A short musical interlude. Lady Gaga bring down the house Edge of Glory at last night's rally in Philly.
posted by bluesky43 at 2:07 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]

Trump Media stock was halted three times on Election Day after its price dropped 15% in just 15 minutes. (archive.is link)
posted by JoeZydeco at 2:22 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]

5:25 in NYC. Stress-eating has commenced.
posted by fingers_of_fire at 2:25 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]

I've been away from Ye Olde Metafiltere for a few years...I come back for two reasons -- the identification of The Most Mysterious Song, AND Election Night 2024, which coincide very neatly with one another.
I was overconfident in 16, doom-n-gloomed in 20 and just sitting back for the ride here in 24. Bless you all.
posted by splen at 2:30 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]

Back again also.

2020 election thread was a great real time tracker, with a banging soundtrack.

Are people assembling a spotify playlist again this time around?
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:32 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]

Weird. 2SER radio in Sydney is reporting exactly now about the most mysterious song.

I hadn’t even heard about this thing.
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:35 PM on November 5

Stress cooking commencing. I got some chicken, about six pounds of veggies and a giant box of S&B Golden Curry. Good luck, everyone.
posted by phooky at 2:36 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]

Are people assembling a spotify playlist again this time around?

I just have a CD of Napalm Death's 'From Enslavement to Obliteration' on repeat at the moment.

I'm trying not to drink accordingly.
posted by ryanshepard at 2:37 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]

I was buying Christmas tree ornaments when they broke the news of Biden winning in 2020… got me so happy it instantly turned me from being the Grinch grudgingly buying stuff to being a FULL ON Christmas ornamenter (it runs in the family), my GF still talks about it.

Not sure what I’m doing tonight… what should I go overboard on?
posted by WaterAndPixels at 2:39 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]

Are people assembling a spotify playlist again this time around?

Election Therapy playlist
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:39 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]

My husband and I walked approximately 200 yards from our new house to vote at our new polling place, a elementary school gym. Made delightful small talk with one awkward high school election worker and complimented another on the knitting project she was working on, in between feeding ballots into the scanner.

Wept a little bit in the voting booth, as is my custom, but I'm feeling pretty OK as we head into the evening. Here in Chicago, we're electing a school board for the first time and there are always bad judges to try to boot out, so here's hoping that increased engagement and turn-out will have good knock-on effects, locally.
posted by merriment at 2:41 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]

Here's the mefi 2020 playlist:)
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:45 PM on November 5

Currently listening to Unpopular Sabbath. Again.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 2:45 PM on November 5

Is it worth following the election returns tonight? As much as I want a blue wave, I can't let myself believe it will happen. I had been assuming we'd have to wait for days again. I was going to take two Benedryl and try to just sleep. But I am bad at not knowing.
posted by rikschell at 2:47 PM on November 5

We’re trying to distract ourselves at a coffee shop with sugary lattes and art supplies. But um, here I am on the internet…
posted by UltraMorgnus at 2:49 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]

Common Sense Says She Wins, Jay Kuo (sorry, Substack):

ten reasons why I remain cautiously optimistic:

1. The Gender Gap
2. Older women voters
3. Enthusiasm favors Democrats
4. The favorability factor
5. The Latino vote
6. The youth vote
7. Closing weak v. closing strong
8. The Ground Game
9. Trump has bet on young male voters
10. About those polls

It's worth a read.
posted by kristi at 2:51 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]

My spouse had off yesterday and today, so we went to Cape May, NJ for the night for a distraction. I was a ball of anxiety on the way down, but loosened up considerably and, perhaps not coincidentally, avoided most of the internet until we got back home today. Tonight, like 2020 and 2016 before it, probably involves some(lots of) bourbon or gin once I get caught up on work.
posted by mollweide at 2:53 PM on November 5

You could always make a Suffering Bastard with bourbon & gin.
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:56 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

My today playlist is all psychedelic rock, funk and soul because how else to get through weird times?
posted by Joey Michaels at 2:57 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]

The Guardian is reporting that exit polls show a third of voters said concerns about democracy were foremost on their minds. I see that as a good sign.
posted by Mr. Yuck at 2:58 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]

You could always make a Suffering Bastard with bourbon & gin.

That sounds tasty, but could be bad karma. Might have to rename it.
posted by mollweide at 2:59 PM on November 5

Well I would like to report that I have increased North Carolina’s numbers by 2, as one of my kids texted me with “my friend and his mom are in NC and trying to vote and being turned away by Trump electioneers” and I was able to sort it out with the very lovely folks at the election protection line for North Carolina and get them to another polling place that let them vote. But also, horrifying and unsurprising that it is happening.
posted by corb at 2:59 PM on November 5 [35 favorites]

Wow, the WaPo app just took over my iPhone’s dynamic Island with an EV counter after I tapped on some cryptic prompt? Props to them for finding an uncanny mix of what is somehow one of the better uses of that space I’ve seen at a technical level combined with an omnipresent anxiety horror show I seriously do not want. Luckily figured out how to disable…
posted by advil at 2:59 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]

What's up with The Hill's Decision Desk HQ predictions right now? 😬😬😬😬
posted by mxjudyliza at 3:00 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

Currently listening to Unpopular Sabbath. Again.

I just played/listened to that same track the other day ..which is rare.
posted by Liquidwolf at 3:00 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

Every Tuesday I meet a friend in a park to juggle clubs together. Well when I looked up nearby ballot drop box locations, it turns out there's one in that park!

Bonus 1: I got to vote without having to bike anywhere else.
Bonus 2: Someone else was biking their vote in, and we had a "heck yeah!" moment.

Filling out my ballot from home is so much better an experience than trying to do it at a polling site. I really like being able to sit at my computer and look up who all these people are and what these referenda actually mean. Still couldn't come to an opinion on who would be a good regional park district director, though. From a one paragraph blurb all three candidates seemed pretty okay. I kind of wonder if that should just be an appointed position.
posted by aubilenon at 3:01 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]

Reuters Washington reporter says Philly is at 150% of 2020 vote in some precincts. Probably not much Trump in there unless it's a lot of squirrel people in those neighborhoods.
posted by kensington314 at 3:02 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]

oh there's squirrel people, they just aren't trump people
posted by zenon at 3:05 PM on November 5

Cliff Huxtable isn't voting for a guy who was sued for racial discrimination in housing over an HBCU grad.

Probably conflating the character and the actor and I don't think there is as much certiany who the rich rapist would vote for.
posted by Mitheral at 3:09 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]

The Hill is an even shittier version of Politico. Ignore them.
posted by leotrotsky at 3:09 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]

19. Be a patriot.

Some of Timothy Snyder's writing in this book is very good, but i always get irritated at this one, because there is never more than a hair's breadth of space between "patriotism" and fascism.
posted by adrienneleigh at 3:15 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]

> Every Tuesday I meet a friend in a park to juggle clubs together.

Oh my.
posted by lucidium at 3:15 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]

538s final(?) simulation seems to have reverted to exactly 50/50 (well 50/49 in favor of Harris). I am also nauseously optimistic and allowing myself to be buoyed by the slight increase in Harris' odds in these simulations.
posted by TwoWordReview at 3:16 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]

Philly DA Larry Krasner, who is NOT fucking around, just now:

"The only talk about massive cheating has come from one of the candidates, Donald J. Trump. There is no factual basis whatsoever within law enforcement to support this wild allegation. We have invited complaints and allegations of improprieties all day. If Donald J. Trump has any facts to support his wild allegations, we want them now. Right now. We are not holding our breath"

posted by JoeZydeco at 3:17 PM on November 5 [34 favorites]

I'll be damned if I can get metachat to work.

Must be the apostrophe.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 3:19 PM on November 5

Red points already starting to rack up. Vibes are bad.
posted by ryanshepard at 3:20 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

(Red Mirage!)
posted by mochapickle at 3:21 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]

Love the work that Election Protection does. 866-OUR-VOTE for those that have t heard about it yet. Call and encourage friends to call if the encounter any issues, up to and including intimidation, long lines, etc.

Three general rules that apply (still call, but do this while you call):
1. Check your registration before you go. Most states or counties have an online checking system. If you need help- call the hotline and they can do it for you.
2. STAY IN LINE! If you are in line when the polls close, or if the lines are long, stay and call!
3. In many situations, if an election worker tries to say a registered voter can’t vote, a provisional ballot can be used and cured later. Call the hotline while staying at or near the polling place, because while a provisional ballot is a last resort, it is better than nothing!! (And the hotline will be open for most of November for curing questions/issues.)

Oh and bonus- most states permit accessibility and other ease of access (skipping the line, interpreters). Call the hotline- they can help!

And please be patient with the hotline workers- these rules are complicated.(Sometimes intentionally so!) we really just want to help!! (I just finished my Texas shift.)
posted by susiswimmer at 3:25 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]

there is never more than a hair's breadth of space between "patriotism" and fascism.

Arendt called nationalism 'pride without achievement'. I like this formulation, since it allows immigrants more pride in achieving citizenship than those granted it by birth.

And if being born is the achievement you're most proud of, what the fuck have you done with your life? That's it? All you've got is that flag? What a loser.
posted by adept256 at 3:25 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]

Nauseous optimism is nothing without nausea.
posted by mazola at 3:26 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

I can tell it’s an emotional day because Lady Gaga made me cry.

Also! I’ve been rewatching Broad City this week as a comfort show, and there are so many references to the 2016 election.

Ilana: “I mean, I feel like we’re finally moving forward”

Abbi: “And it’s just the beginning. I mean, never backwards, only forwards”

Ilana: “Next is a woman!”

Both: “Whoo!”
posted by sucre at 3:28 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

Philly DA Larry Krasner, who is NOT fucking around,

This would be the same guy who held a press conference on election security Monday morning and said, "Anyone who thinks it's time to play militia . . . F around and find out." (And proceded to use the phrase 2 more times. lmfao.)
posted by soundguy99 at 3:28 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]

Hugs from Australia to anyone who needs them - just wish I could do more than that for you guys.
posted by ninazer0 at 3:31 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]

THANK YOU for doing Election Protection work, susiswimmer. I am grateful to you.
posted by kristi at 3:39 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]

I’ve been rewatching Broad City this week as a comfort show, and there are so many references to the 2016 election.

My feeling at the time was that the 2016 election broke that show. It was so consistently funny for the first three seasons and then as soon as Trump got elected the wind went right out of their sails.
posted by Parasite Unseen at 3:41 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

“Women are not without electoral or political power.”

— Samuel Alito, Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization
posted by kirkaracha at 3:45 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]

“Women are not without electoral or political power.”

That is literally just inviting: "Tell Alito, I want him to know it was me."
posted by howbigisthistextfield at 3:48 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]

I’m avoiding the news and spinning some vinyl on a 1960’s Garrard Type A turntable I inherited from my father-in-law. And by classic vinyl I mean 1980’s era Swans and Wire. You know, the uplifting classics.
posted by misterpatrick at 3:49 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]

Alright, my final prediction before I head to an outdoor taproom with pizza (as other people have mentioned, North Carolina is having really nice weather right now): the results will be closer than 2020, but Kamala will pull it off. I hope I'm not too wrong.
posted by coffeecat at 3:50 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]

Red points already starting to rack up. Vibes are bad.

I'm all for pessimism of the intellect (and optimism of the will!), but please note that the earliest poll closing times in any state are not for another 10 minutes. There's no data yet, there won't be for hours.
posted by adrienneleigh at 3:52 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]

There are numbers coming in from Kentucky and Indiana. Those are expected to go strongly to TFG and so far they are.
posted by mazola at 3:55 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]

And the piecemeal nature of how the data comes in means that hanging on every result as it comes in will probably be the worst way to handle it.
posted by rikschell at 3:56 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]

I logged in at 5:30 this morning to the DNC Voter Protection hotline to take calls as the polls opened. (Not the same as susiswimmer, Election Protection is an independent nonpartisan org, DNC VoPro is both voter assistance and frontline reporting intake from field teams on polling locations that need to be sued into doing their jobs.)

Things started quiet but picked up in earnest at 7am. TTalked to a young person in Texas who was voting for the first time but didn't know if they're registered because they didn't get confirmation from the state. I got their permission to look up their info on the Secretary of State site and sure enough, there they were.

"You're good to go. Get at it!"
"Damn straight. I'm gonna vote!"
"You gonna do that right now? You gonna bring friends?"
"Yeah! can I give you their names so you can look them up?"
"Hell no! I need their consent! I can't have us looking people up like stalkers for democracy. But tell them to call us and we can totally confirm their registration and set up your little voting party."
"I'm gonna go do that right now."

I hope they did call and my other shift workers got a little wave of excited Texan kids ready to go do a democracy.

Anyway, it's been calls like that. I logged off shift at 10am, went to my day job, and now I'm back on the hotline but just doing techsupport on the calling software rather than taking calls.
I'm exhausted because I woke up at 4am and am too tired to stay up late and be worried; so I'm going to bed after my tech support shift ends at 9:30. Meanwhile the hotline Slack is a running series of anecdotes about voters happy to connect w/ us. 10/10 way to spend election day.
posted by bl1nk at 3:56 PM on November 5 [37 favorites]

> Red points already starting to rack up. Vibes are bad.

(previously)
posted by bl1nk at 4:01 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]

Never been so happy to attend the zoom meeting for my antipodean co-workers.
posted by ocschwar at 4:03 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

I’ve never felt so uninspired by an election in my life.
posted by iamck at 4:05 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]

It’s really hitting me that trump might win this and damn it feels bad
posted by dis_integration at 4:05 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]

I don't mean to monopolize the thread, but - bl1nk, THANK YOU for doing DNC Vote Protection work. I am grateful to you.
posted by kristi at 4:05 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]

Associated Press calls: Kamala Harris wins Vermont.
Trump wins Indiana and Kentucky.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:06 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

Some reporting from deep red Indiana by John Green:

Today I will be reporting on Indiana's election results and what if anything we can learn from them. In 2020, Trump beat Biden 75/22 in rural Pike County, Indiana. This year, with most of the vote in, it's 74/25. Kamala running (very) slightly ahead in this rural county. MEANWHILE in Vermillion County, where I once vomited on the side of the road on a road trip...In Vermillion County, Trump is beating Kamala 66/33, slightly behind his 69/29 margin. So far, and obviously it's (very, ridiculously, absurdly) early, slightly more Hoosiers from small towns are voting for Kamala than voted for Biden in 2020.

posted by gwint at 4:07 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]

Might be a dumb question, but how can they determine Kamala won Vermont if the votes aren't even counted yet? Shows 0% counted.

(Am Team Kamala all the way, btw! Waiting with bated breath here. Hopinggggg for the best!)
posted by dubious_dude at 4:08 PM on November 5

AP makes the call based on polling
posted by dis_integration at 4:10 PM on November 5

Might be a dumb question, but how can they determine Kamala won Vermont if the votes aren't even counted yet? Shows 0% counted.

I was wondering the same thing looking at DecisionDesk. Maybe really really lopsided exit polls?
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 4:11 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

A cocktail recipe.
posted by lucidium at 4:11 PM on November 5

Associated Press calls: Kamala Harris wins Vermont.
Trump wins Indiana and Kentucky.

Man, i really wish the AP & other mainstream media would quit doing this "calling the state before any votes are counted" thing. It's part of how Republicans have been able to manipulate people to have so much mistrust of election results.

I’ve never felt so uninspired by an election in my life.

Me either. Whoever wins it's going to be genocide and billionaires hollowing out society. One candidate is obviously worse, but "vote to fight fascism" doesn't really work when both candidates are totally fine with some fascism.
posted by adrienneleigh at 4:11 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]

Like 2020 I imagine there will be a period of time where states that close polls early will report in for Trump.

The turnout from Philly is getting reported as high. That's great news.

The bomb threat news in Georgia however is terrible news.

This will be a long night.

Thank you to all poll workers and people protecting the vote!

This was my daughter's first election she could voted and for so many reasons, Kamala Harris is the right choice.

Here is to hoping America does the right thing.
posted by kmartino at 4:11 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]

I have decided that whichever state is the first to be called for Harris will win the title of First Past the Putz.

Congratulations, Vermont!
posted by nickmark at 4:11 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]

Home from work and on station.
posted by vrakatar at 4:17 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

If you have an election lasting more than 48 hours, you may need emergency care.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:18 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]

My feeling at the time was that the 2016 election broke [Broad City]. It was so consistently funny for the first three seasons and then as soon as Trump got elected the wind went right out of their sails.

Remember Ilana doing commercials for Amazon Ads a couple years back? Good times, good times.
posted by non canadian guy at 4:19 PM on November 5

I have been in bed all day with stomach flu and while I don't recommend the flu part, sleeping most of the day was a good thing. Still pretty groggy but also realizing that I am literally standing at a forking path between two wildly different futures with the rest of the country and so it's ok to not be able to focus on anything. I haven't turned on the TV and probably won't. But I'm glad to see you all here.
posted by emjaybee at 4:21 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]

^^ I phrased it as I'm in the Quantum Lobby, where someone has already pulled the lever, and over the next couple of hours, I'm gradually going to be shunted into two separate universes, but for now I just feel anxious.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 4:23 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]

Legit. Waiting to see which hellverse we end up in.

Meanwhile, a semi overturned on my way home, so it's gonna be an hour of slogging home with my thoughts, rerouting traffic. Whee.
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:29 PM on November 5

If you want to know how important exit polling is, just ask President Kerry.
posted by gimonca at 4:30 PM on November 5

I'm drinking. Would love to not, but what can you do?
posted by DirtyOldTown at 4:30 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]

Has there ever been a situation where AP called the wrong candidate?
posted by creatrixtiara at 4:32 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

I'm hearing that news services will call Florida for Trump, Scott etc. by 8:00 PM.
Disappointing but not surprising. Sorry, friends.
posted by martin q blank at 4:32 PM on November 5

Took a nap, took a bath, playing Elvis as surely only the King can heal a broken America, and am about to turn on PBS for an evening of results, doomscrolling, and yelling at David Brooks. Good luck, everyone. Stay safe. TCB.
posted by Capt. Renault at 4:33 PM on November 5

I'm catastrophising so you don't have to!

Slightly more seriously, throw on your local news instead of whatever French Mistake you default to. I'm watching a really interesting 9News story that puts a lot of that Venezualan Gang in Aurora nonense into context.
posted by East14thTaco at 4:38 PM on November 5

Voted for Harris. Voted to retain all the judges because Stitt’s replacements would not be in line with my values. Voted against the state questions. Voted for Monroe for mayor.

Worried and I wish I was with friends having a drink rather than at home by myself. But my cat is here.
posted by bunderful at 4:39 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]

Has there ever been a situation where AP called the wrong candidate?

2000 Florida, though it was really a group called Voter News Service organized by the AP. They got really burned having to un-call it.
posted by netowl at 4:41 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]

emjaybee i hope you recover quickly.

for my fellow mefites, whichever way this goes, i will be a staunch supporter to any person in need. i'm most worried for womens rights (taking away a womans right to her own body" is one step away from taking away our voting rights) one step away from dissolving gay marriage and one step away from total hand maids tale.

i believe in us, america! don't let us down!
posted by kiwi-epitome at 4:41 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

Lots of bomb threats at polling places in metro-Atlanta today:

Polls have now closed in most Georgia precincts, and election workers have begun counting Election Day votes. A few precincts will remain open, including five in DeKalb County, five in Fulton County and one in Gwinnett County due to threat evacuations.

posted by hydropsyche at 4:43 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]

Decision Desk is reporting Laurens County, SC, as 68.9% for Jill Stein, with an estimated 48% of the votes counted so far. Which...well, we can think on that a bit.
posted by mittens at 4:43 PM on November 5

But my cat is here.
How cats see election maps.
posted by valkane at 4:45 PM on November 5

I think that might just be a glitch, mittens - NBC news has Laurens County as 68.9% for Trump.
posted by Jeanne at 4:46 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

Huh. Well, I think Harris should have reached left.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:46 PM on November 5

Does anyone know of a site that shows actual vote counts side-by-side with the last polls for that state? I am curious whether there is any sort of systematic error in the polls.
posted by Westringia F. at 4:49 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]

I knew in 2016. I knew in 2020. I just don't know now. It feels weird. And fucking bad. I do have a sense we'll know tonight, I don't know why.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:51 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]

Westringia F: not sure if this is quite what you're asking for, but ABC Australia's live blog has live counts.

West Virginia seems really close
posted by creatrixtiara at 4:54 PM on November 5

Oh nvm WV was 50/50 when I last checked but it's swung back to Trump
posted by creatrixtiara at 4:54 PM on November 5

AP called West Virginia for Trump a while ago.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:55 PM on November 5

It's nearing 8 pm on the east coast:

To every thing (turn turn turn)
There is a season (turn turn turn)
And a time to curse and spit
Appeasing heaven
posted by Wilbefort at 4:56 PM on November 5

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