I had never met @NigelGoldenfeld prior to the pandemic, but we've interacted a number of times since. He's been the opposite of every arrogant physicist stereotype throughout.
He's worked extremely hard to listen to and learn from epidemiologists, and to take on a thankless job.
With respect to what is happening at UIUC, I think it's too early to say the effort will fail—though of course it could fail. We knew that all along, or at least that's what I've been telling reporters for weeks.
Today we learned ~1/3 Big Ten athletes who were #covid19 + had abnormal heart MRIs, consistent w/ myocarditis, even those without symptoms. If anyone still is questioning whether this virus attacks the heart, it's denialism.
There have been multiple reports of heart involvement with #covid19, including young athletes, and replication of @GladstoneInst iPSC-> heart cell findings. Very little is known about heart inflammation among asymptomatics (unlike lung Δs)
Documented #SARSCoV2 particles in heart cells in a tragic case of an 11-year-old girl
A little primer on independent Data and Safety Monitoring Boards (DSMB), who will be reviewing the #SARSCoV2 vaccine trials to adjudicate safety and efficacy, making recommendations to the clinical trialists 1/
Consists of a multidisciplinary group of several members: clinical trialists, biostatistician, bioethicist, and experts in topic (virologist, immunologist, epidemiologists, vaccinologists)
The timing/schedule of data review usually based on enrollment 2/
The data are teed up by the biostatisticians. The DSMB is blinded to vaccine or placebo groups. There is ordinarily a time lag/gap from the "cleaned" dataset reviewed by DSMB that is behind ongoing events 3/
1/13: New Thread: A dozen reasons why I'm worried about releasing a #covid19#vaccine through an emergency use authorization (EUA)
1. We haven't done this before for a #vaccine, or at least a major vaccine released to a large segment of the population. We've done it for technicalities, but nothing like this.
2. And for good reason, EUAs involve substandard or lesser reviews. How can you justify a substandard or lesser review for something that would be injected in tens of millions, maybe hundreds of millions of Americans?
Aug 27 letter from @CDCDirector to all Governors says the agency is, "rapidly making preparations to implement large-scale distribution of #covid19#vaccines in the fall of 2020" using a contractor (McKesson Corp). Redfield asks Governors to grant...
..McKesson full licensed access to sites statewide for mass #covid19 immunizations, which must be "fully operational" by November 1st -- 2 days before the national elections.
This means mass vaccination nationwide could start in 59 days. FIFTY-NINE DAYS
Is any #covid19#vaccine likely to have completed Phase 3 safety and efficacy clinical trials, and gone through full scientific and @US_FDA review in 59 days? [Rhetorical question]
2/8 Corticosteroids & covid19
i. Low-dose hydrocortisone didn't reduce death, persistent respiratory support at day 21 vs placebo among critically ill patients w #covid19 and ARF, but the study was stopped early when RECOVERY trial findings were announced ja.ma/31NqEDf
Announcing our Long-Term Care COVID Tracker—the most comprehensive dataset on COVID-19 in long-term care facilities in the Unisted States. covidtracking.com/data/longtermc…
Dating back to May 21, the Long-Term Care Tracker compiles all available information of COVID-19 cases and related deaths in long-term care facilities—nursing homes, skilled nursing facilities, assisted living facilities, and other care homes—and tracks both residents and staff.
COVID-19 deaths in US long-term care facilities have surpassed 73,000, representing 43% of all deaths and one out of every 28 LTC residents in America. And we’re still learning how states count and report these figures. covidtracking.com/blog/long-term…
New weekly #covid19 sit rep by @WHO is up:
Another almost 1,8 million new cases added last week.
Another 38,000 deaths.
At this pace the world is on track to cross one million reported deaths at the end of this month.
Still the hardest hit region.
Roughly 13% of world’s population, but more than 50% of global cases and deaths.
"biggest drivers of the case counts in the region have observed a moderate decline or stabalisation”, but increases in Peru, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina...
@WHO South-East Asia:
Biggest increase in cases compared to previous week (+9%), driven by India which reported nearly half a million cases in a week.
"While these trends are concerning, the increase in cases should be seen against a substantive rise in testing in recent weeks"
“No country can just pretend the pandemic is over”, says @drtedros at @WHO presser on #covid19. "The reality is that this coronavirus spreads easily.
It can be fatal to people of all ages and most people remain susceptible."
@DrTedros@WHO "Opening up without having control is a recipe for disaster”, says @DrTedros. “We believe there are 4 essential things that all countries, communities and individuals must focus on to take control."
@DrTedros@WHO 1. Prevent clusters
“In many countries we have seen explosive outbreaks linked to gatherings of people at stadiums, nightclubs, places of worship, and in other crowds”, says @drtedros. “Preventing these amplifying events is essential."
"Eight months into the #covid19 pandemic, we understand that people are tired and yearn to get on with their lives. We understand that countries want to get their societies and economies going again. "-@DrTedros
"That’s what WHO wants too. Stay-at-home orders & other restrictions are something that some countries felt they needed to do to take pressure off their health systems. But they have taken a heavy toll on livelihoods, economies & mental health."-@DrTedros#covid19
2/ They mention that there didn't seem to be spatial clustering of infected cabins on the same floor/zone, & that this implies it was not primarily spread via droplets/ more evidence it was potentially spread by aerosolized particles?
This doesn't make sense to me.
3/ Most people prob aren't interacting closely w/ other random cabins on their floor but do share same hallways at diff times.
If anything, clustering by floor/zone in which people don't interact face to face as much would suggest lingering aerosols- which we didn't see here.
A wedding in rural Maine led to the state's largest #covid19 outbreak. The screening for the party was symptom and temperature checks. The presumed index case showed symptoms the day after the ceremony. Remember- spread is also *presymptomatic* bostonglobe.com/2020/08/29/nat…
2/ In all, half of the attendees became ill. An elderly couple were infected by a wedding guest-- the wife unfortunately passed away.
A jail 220 miles away had an outbreak from one of the wedding attendees.
This article tells the story of one outbreak...
3/ But it really tells the story of how outbreaks happen.
They happen when you least expect it-- when you think you've taken enough precaution; they spread quickly, and affect people far and near.
The best we can do is follow the basics consistently.