Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are hunting for votes with two months to go in the presidential race. Specifically, they're hunting for electoral votes — and the different paths to victory through the core battleground states.
You can map them all out yourself with NBC News' "Road to 270" tool, an interactive electoral map that shows off the different routes to an all-important total of, you guessed it, 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
Build and share your own map, or look through the different scenarios NBC News experts Steve Kornacki and Kristen Welker have drawn up, from the most likely paths to victory to some more unusual or chaotic combinations.
Remember: In the seven core battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, President Joe Biden's biggest win in 2020 was by less than 2.8 percentage points in Michigan. Trump's biggest (and only) win was by less than 1.4 points in North Carolina. Not much separated these states last time, and that could make for some unusual trends and combinations this time.
Use the Road to 270 tool yourself here.
Harris' direct path: through the Great Lakes
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin have all voted the same way in every election since 1992 — and all but one time (2016) it was for the Democrat. Even before Harris subbed in for Biden, polling showed the Democratic ticket faring better in these three states than in the Sun Belt battlegrounds. This is in part because Trump’s polling gains this year have come from younger and nonwhite (especially Hispanic) voters, who are less abundant in these states.
All Harris has to do is hold this trio (and avoid any surprises elsewhere) and she’ll have the 270 electoral votes she needs.
Trump's direct path: through the Sun Belt
For most of this year Trump has run stronger in Georgia and Arizona than in the northern battleground states. This is due in part to strides he’s made with nonwhite voters, especially younger Latinos. Since entering the race, Harris has gained ground with these voters, potentially opening up a Sun Belt path of her own.
Still, it would take very little for Trump to flip Georgia (he lost by just under 12,000 votes in 2020) and Arizona (the margin was just over 10,000 last time). If he does that (and doesn’t have a hiccup in North Carolina), all Trump would then need is any one of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Of those three, the closest in 2020 was Wisconsin, which Trump lost by about 20,000 votes.
An electoral tie
We mention the possibility every four years, and here’s what it would take this time around: Trump holds on to North Carolina and flips Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, bringing him to 268 electoral votes. Meanwhile, Harris protects the old “blue wall” trio of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, seemingly putting her at 270.
But then…
Nebraska’s Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District (which Trump carried in 2016 and then lost in 2020) returns to the GOP fold, lifting Trump into a 269-269 tie with Harris, which would then be broken by the newly sworn in House of Representatives — where Trump would be the clear favorite, since each state delegation would receive one vote, with Republicans currently controlling more delegations than Democrats.
More unusual scenarios: Can Trump win without North Carolina?
North Carolina is the only state of the seven core battlegrounds that Trump actually won in 2020 — but he carried it by just 1 percentage point. The Trump campaign ramped up its spending in North Carolina after Harris ascended to the top of the ticket.
Yet in the event that Trump falls short there and Harris becomes the first Democrat since 2008 to win the state, Trump still has a path to victory.
That path would involve Trump taking down the “blue wall” and carrying all of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, as he did in 2016. It would mean the seven core battleground states would not be swinging in the same direction, since Biden won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2020 while losing North Carolina.
Then, even if Trump wins those three states, he would still have to win either Arizona or Georgia to eke out a victory without North Carolina.
More unusual scenarios: Can Harris win without Pennsylvania?
An important development since Harris replaced Biden atop the Democratic ticket has been the party’s improved outlook in the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. And this expanded Democratic map gives Harris the possibility of getting to 270 electoral votes even if she loses in the Great Lakes states.
Say Trump wins in both Michigan (15 electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) — where the polling remains close. Harris can still get above 270 electoral votes by winning Georgia (16 electoral votes), Nevada (6 electoral votes) and North Carolina (16 electoral votes).
Or say Harris also loses Nevada. She can still make up for it by winning Arizona and its 11 electoral votes. Again, this scenario would rely on states swinging in opposite directions compared to 2020. But since they were bunched up so closely then, who is to say the populations haven't changed enough to create an unusual situation?
See this scenario here and more, including what a dream election night would look like for Trump or Harris.
