Jamaican officials warned Sunday that some communities may not survive “catastrophic” flash floods as Hurricane Melissa, a powerful Category 4 storm, inched slowly toward the island.
Melissa was packing maximum sustained winds of 145 mph while moving west at 5 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in its 5 p.m. ET update. The storm was centered about 115 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica’s capital.
Melissa is forecast to strengthen into a Category 5 overnight, with hurricane center computer models showing "landfall of Melissa as a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane" likely Monday night or Tuesday morning, according to the update and an accompanying forecast discussion.
“It now appears virtually certain that the core of a powerful hurricane will move over Jamaica Monday and Tuesday," hurricane center deputy director Jamie Rhome said in a video update Sunday.
However, U.S. forecasters say an eyewall replacement cycle could weaken Melissa at landfall, which would further erode its potency before it arrives in eastern Cuba Tuesday night and the southeastern Bahamas Wednesday.
Melissa is generating 10-foot waves as it drinks up 85-degree sea water. The storm's minimum central pressure, a measure of power, was estimated at 941 millibars and dropping, a sign of strengthening and a number that would place it on a long list of the most intense tropical cyclones stateside.
The distinction between Category 4 and 5, however, will make little difference to its impact on the island, as either category is expected to bring catastrophic destruction.
"With it will come long-duration, destructive winds, catastrophic flooding, loss of power, loss of communication, and communities will be cut off for several days in the aftermath," Rhome said of Melissa.
Melissa could be the strongest recorded storm the country has ever faced, according to Evan Thompson, the principal director of Jamaica’s Meteorological Service.
The storm will bring 15 to 30 inches of rain to areas of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced in an update Sunday afternoon. (Hispaniola is the island that contains Haiti and the Dominican Republic.)
Many Jamaican communities "will not survive this flooding," said Desmond Mackenzie, Jamaica’s minister of local government and community development.
Jamaican officials anticipate mandatory evacuations.
All shelters across Jamaica have been activated, housing 280 people as of Sunday afternoon.
Evacuation buses are parked in vulnerable areas waiting to evacuate residents, but "the response is not there," said Daryl Vaz, Jamaica’s minister of science, energy, telecommunications and transport.
"There has always been a hesitancy when evacuation orders are given," said Vaz. "Do not take this one lightly. This may be the one."
In Port Royal, Jamaica, Margaret Barkes said she was the only woman on an evacuation bus. She told NBC News she’s evacuating because she is a lupus patient and doesn’t want to be stuck without doctors nearby.
“Even though I have my medication here, I’m still not taking any chance,” Barkes said. "“But to be honest, without my condition, I would have stayed.”
Barkes said she doesn't expect anyone else to join her on the evacuation bus, adding that nobody is afraid in Port Royal, where she has been a resident for over 45 years.
Life-threatening storm surge is expected on the south coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning. Surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level and will be accompanied by large and destructive waves, the NHC said.
With landfall in Cuba also likely, the country's government on Sunday issued a hurricane warning for the provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantánamo and Holguín.
As U.S. Naval Station Guantanamo Bay evacuates nonessential personnel via ferry, the U.S. Embassy in Havana issued a weather alert warning American travelers of the catastrophic forecast.
Melissa has already taken the lives of four people, killing three in Haiti and one in the Dominican Republic.
Storm conditions are being felt throughout parts of Jamaica, including in the parish of St. Thomas, located on the country's eastern coast.
Heavy rain and strong winds can be seen in videos taken at Serge Island Farms in St. Thomas on Sunday morning.
Local residents in Melissa’s projected path are taking precautions as the storm approaches.
In Ocho Rios, Jamaica, a hotel has blocked off areas and placed sandbags on the property as a safety measure, as seen in a video posted on X Sunday morning by a hotel guest.
At Hope Zoo in Kingston, staff took precautions to protect 1,500 animals from the storm, boarding up outdoor exhibits and moving animals indoors, according to a video co-posted on the zoo’s Instagram account early Sunday morning.
In the Dominican Republic, 82 people were in shelters and nine people had been rescued from floodwaters, the country’s Emergency Operations Center said.
Some tourists are stranded in Jamaica as all international airports on the island have been closed.
The U.S. Embassy in Jamaica has advised U.S. citizens on the island to "shelter in place and contact your loved ones to let them know how you are doing."
The embassy will be available for "emergency services only" from Monday to Friday.
Miami resident Nicole Doyon was on a yoga wellness retreat in Montego Bay when Melissa became a major threat to the island, leaving her and two friends stranded.
"Our family is working overtime trying to exhaust any resources they can to help us out," Doyon told NBC News. "We have friends calling the embassy like everybody is doing their due diligence to help us out."
Doyon said the villa they are staying in has put them in a safe room and has supplied them with water and food.
"We’re in the best situation that we could be in," said Doyon.
She and her friends have a flight booked for Wednesday out of Montego Bay airport.
"Worst-case scenario or best-case scenario, we get out Wednesday," Doyon said.
