"It's over."
July 5, 2025 12:00 AM Subscribe
Dr. David Suzuki, noted Canadian scientist, educator, and climate activist, has called the fight.
(Note: This is not an obit, at least not for Dr. Suzuki.)
(Note: This is not an obit, at least not for Dr. Suzuki.)
I’ve never said this before to the media, but it’s too late.Imprisoned for 3 years as a child in a Canadian Internment Camp, Suzuki, now age 89, has gone on to spend decades patiently educating the public on how we could have overcome climate change, in person and the media, including on the long running TV show, The Nature of Things (now in its 64th season).
There are nine planetary boundaries and we’ve only dealt with one of them — the ozone layer — and we think we’ve saved ourselves from that threat. But we passed the seventh boundary this year, and we’re in the extreme danger zone.
If we pass one boundary, we should be shitting our pants. We’ve passed seven! - via
Well I’m going to stop worrying about separating my trash.
posted by Going To Maine at 2:27 AM on July 5 [12 favorites]
posted by Going To Maine at 2:27 AM on July 5 [12 favorites]
Apropos of, you know, everything, I have been increasingly tempted to try running a Dark Sun campaign lately. The metaphor is starting to feel stupidly on-the-nose.
posted by gelfin at 3:30 AM on July 5 [9 favorites]
posted by gelfin at 3:30 AM on July 5 [9 favorites]
Yes, the planet got destroyed, but for a beautiful moment in time we created a lot of money for shareholders
posted by revmitcz at 3:37 AM on July 5 [29 favorites]
posted by revmitcz at 3:37 AM on July 5 [29 favorites]
I'm not denying, in any degree, the urgency of environmental crisis. But what I always see missing from these is the true politics of climate change vis a vis the economy of everyday irrational humans.
Just look at what happened when the price of eggs went up! This never seems to be a rigorous part of the discussion.
posted by Reasonably Everything Happens at 3:52 AM on July 5 [6 favorites]
Just look at what happened when the price of eggs went up! This never seems to be a rigorous part of the discussion.
posted by Reasonably Everything Happens at 3:52 AM on July 5 [6 favorites]
The thing is, all along we've tried to nurture some hope both for practical reasons and out of kindness when I would argue that it has always been clear that humans would not slow down or prevent disastrous climate change.
This is because the people who have the actual power (the very rich and important politicians) are not accountable to anyone and have methods to benefit from climate collapse, and because since this is a slow problem taking place over several long human lifetimes, most people do not have the incentive for the significant sacrifices of time and money needed to bring change about. It's exactly the kind of problem that large, complex societies can't solve.
China is a little bit of an exception, and I would argue that this is partly an accident (this is happening when they have a LOT of state capacity), partly the result of a long, long state history which has created a habit of planning and assuming some kind of continuity and partly the result of fairly recent country-wide upheavals - if you had the same 20th century as the Chinese state, you might believe a little more in accountability yourself.
The darkest and worst piece for me personally is the realization that elites aren't just going to let ordinary people suffer and die; they are going to kill us fairly actively. Right now it's just by wrecking the state, but you have only to look at what they are willing to do in Palestine. Someone who will give billions to blow up Palestinian babies over fifty square miles isn't going to flinch at machine-gunning you and bulldozing your house if they want your land or your resources.
All along we should have realized that the type of people who will kill and steal on a mass scale abroad have no loyalty to a home or its people.
The ambition is for the rest of us to die of disease, starvation, heat waves or a lead overdose while they live on the last viable land. They don't want your basic climate dystopia; they want the rest of us to die, probably soon, so that they can build their crystal cities.
All I'm saying is they shouldn't win. If they want to kill off the rest of us to loot the planet, it's much better that humans cease and things lie fallow until other species can evolve. If we can't have climate justice, we should have climate revenge.
posted by Frowner at 4:02 AM on July 5 [43 favorites]
This is because the people who have the actual power (the very rich and important politicians) are not accountable to anyone and have methods to benefit from climate collapse, and because since this is a slow problem taking place over several long human lifetimes, most people do not have the incentive for the significant sacrifices of time and money needed to bring change about. It's exactly the kind of problem that large, complex societies can't solve.
China is a little bit of an exception, and I would argue that this is partly an accident (this is happening when they have a LOT of state capacity), partly the result of a long, long state history which has created a habit of planning and assuming some kind of continuity and partly the result of fairly recent country-wide upheavals - if you had the same 20th century as the Chinese state, you might believe a little more in accountability yourself.
The darkest and worst piece for me personally is the realization that elites aren't just going to let ordinary people suffer and die; they are going to kill us fairly actively. Right now it's just by wrecking the state, but you have only to look at what they are willing to do in Palestine. Someone who will give billions to blow up Palestinian babies over fifty square miles isn't going to flinch at machine-gunning you and bulldozing your house if they want your land or your resources.
All along we should have realized that the type of people who will kill and steal on a mass scale abroad have no loyalty to a home or its people.
The ambition is for the rest of us to die of disease, starvation, heat waves or a lead overdose while they live on the last viable land. They don't want your basic climate dystopia; they want the rest of us to die, probably soon, so that they can build their crystal cities.
All I'm saying is they shouldn't win. If they want to kill off the rest of us to loot the planet, it's much better that humans cease and things lie fallow until other species can evolve. If we can't have climate justice, we should have climate revenge.
posted by Frowner at 4:02 AM on July 5 [43 favorites]
"Johan Rockström, the Swedish scientist who heads the Potsdam Institute, has defined nine planetary boundaries."
posted by BWA at 4:13 AM on July 5 [7 favorites]
posted by BWA at 4:13 AM on July 5 [7 favorites]
I appreciate this person's expertise and wisdom, but you have to be very careful when somebody at the end of their own life says it's over for everybody. Their narrative is quite complicated at that point.
posted by grog at 4:25 AM on July 5 [37 favorites]
posted by grog at 4:25 AM on July 5 [37 favorites]
Suzuki is a smart man. But he is also at the end of his life and will not see the consequences continue to get worse. But the only way I can get up in the morning and keep working as an educator and researcher in the field is by continuing to think in terms of Not Too Late and All We Can Save.
posted by hydropsyche at 4:28 AM on July 5 [32 favorites]
posted by hydropsyche at 4:28 AM on July 5 [32 favorites]
But what I always see missing from these is the true politics of climate change vis a vis the economy of everyday irrational humans.
David Suzuki has done so much in Canada around ordinary human beings though. Part of my understanding of science and our ecosystem was formed through his super accessible and popular show The Nature of Things, which ran for 40 years (he also started Quirks and Quarks, a science radio show that is still running and that we catch in the car still. His foundation has had significant impact in Canada politically as well as running the nature challenge. I’ve worked with his foundation on the Butterflyway, which we successfully created in my neighborhood and which has a patch of my yard right now, and they were great.
I’ve met him a few times and he’s always been pretty blunt. In this article he’s not saying lie down and die. He’s calling for revolution and telling people to plan for climate change - and some societal collapse. The tone is different but I’m not sure the message has changed that much except he’s given up on a political solution.
I LOVE his dick award. We need that implemented pronto.
posted by warriorqueen at 4:38 AM on July 5 [27 favorites]
David Suzuki has done so much in Canada around ordinary human beings though. Part of my understanding of science and our ecosystem was formed through his super accessible and popular show The Nature of Things, which ran for 40 years (he also started Quirks and Quarks, a science radio show that is still running and that we catch in the car still. His foundation has had significant impact in Canada politically as well as running the nature challenge. I’ve worked with his foundation on the Butterflyway, which we successfully created in my neighborhood and which has a patch of my yard right now, and they were great.
I’ve met him a few times and he’s always been pretty blunt. In this article he’s not saying lie down and die. He’s calling for revolution and telling people to plan for climate change - and some societal collapse. The tone is different but I’m not sure the message has changed that much except he’s given up on a political solution.
I LOVE his dick award. We need that implemented pronto.
posted by warriorqueen at 4:38 AM on July 5 [27 favorites]
It would be much, much easier to save the planet, if it weren't for human behavior.
posted by cupcakeninja at 4:48 AM on July 5
posted by cupcakeninja at 4:48 AM on July 5
It would be much, much easier to save the planet, if it weren't for human behavior.
The planet will be saved, of course. And no more human behaviour, in this scenario.
posted by chavenet at 5:08 AM on July 5 [13 favorites]
The planet will be saved, of course. And no more human behaviour, in this scenario.
posted by chavenet at 5:08 AM on July 5 [13 favorites]
"Too late" only carries meaning if we have the context of too late for what.
It's clear, and has been clear for a while, that there are major effects of climate change that are baked in from the greenhouse gases we've already emitted, and that the more GHGs we continue to emit, the more change we bake in.
It's also clear that the more GHGs we emit, the worse we make the problem. It's not too late to stop making the problem worse or to help people with its impacts. Even if we only end up delaying planetary ecological collapse and its effects, every little bit of extra survival and meaning we create for others matters.
And being in community trying to make things better improves our present, too, independent of the ourtcome. So it's worth doing and sustaining a sense of urgency about, not letting ourselves fall into doom paralysis even and especially when hope is hard to find.
posted by beryllium at 5:37 AM on July 5 [14 favorites]
It's clear, and has been clear for a while, that there are major effects of climate change that are baked in from the greenhouse gases we've already emitted, and that the more GHGs we continue to emit, the more change we bake in.
It's also clear that the more GHGs we emit, the worse we make the problem. It's not too late to stop making the problem worse or to help people with its impacts. Even if we only end up delaying planetary ecological collapse and its effects, every little bit of extra survival and meaning we create for others matters.
And being in community trying to make things better improves our present, too, independent of the ourtcome. So it's worth doing and sustaining a sense of urgency about, not letting ourselves fall into doom paralysis even and especially when hope is hard to find.
posted by beryllium at 5:37 AM on July 5 [14 favorites]
I wrote a song a little while ago while I was trying to process some of my climate grief. It's called "Mostly Uninhabitable Hell Planet", and believe it or not, it's optimistic. Here's a chunk of the lyric, for your consideration:
"Well, the money-men they got their way, and left us with the bill to pay.
I'm not alright, but it's okay. We'll live to fight another day. Just dig
down deep and hide away, bide our time and wait, and wait, and wait and wait and
wait and wait and wait and wait until the day we look around to find
that all the pricks who killed the world have all just up and gone away.
With nothing left to drill, or kill, or buy or sell, or trade or steal
they all just kind of called it quits, with no one left to take their shit.
So now we make a go of it, and do our best to live on this.....
Mostly Uninhabitable Hell Planet"
posted by mrjohnmuller at 5:45 AM on July 5 [10 favorites]
"Well, the money-men they got their way, and left us with the bill to pay.
I'm not alright, but it's okay. We'll live to fight another day. Just dig
down deep and hide away, bide our time and wait, and wait, and wait and wait and
wait and wait and wait and wait until the day we look around to find
that all the pricks who killed the world have all just up and gone away.
With nothing left to drill, or kill, or buy or sell, or trade or steal
they all just kind of called it quits, with no one left to take their shit.
So now we make a go of it, and do our best to live on this.....
Mostly Uninhabitable Hell Planet"
posted by mrjohnmuller at 5:45 AM on July 5 [10 favorites]
You should post those lyrics or a performance to r/CollapseMusic (previously), mrjohnmuller.
posted by jeffburdges at 5:49 AM on July 5 [3 favorites]
posted by jeffburdges at 5:49 AM on July 5 [3 favorites]
If they want to kill off the rest of us to loot the planet, it's much better that humans cease and things lie fallow until other species can evolve.Sometimes I wonder if the most effective thing we can do for posterity is to leave messages in the archaeological record that will last the requisite millions of years to give the next species incontrovertible proof that yes, we existed and this is what killed us. A sort of reverse Silurian hypothesis, if you will.
posted by purple_frogs at 6:03 AM on July 5 [6 favorites]
I appreciate this person's expertise and wisdom, but you have to be very careful when somebody at the end of their own life says it's over for everybody. Their narrative is quite complicated at that point.
100%.
This happened with H. G. Wells too. He was 48 when he imagined the possibility of atomic weapons, and 79 when we made his dream a horrifying reality. He then had only a year to live. So it was natural when he projected his own doom on the rest of us by predicting apocalypse. (Not that nuclear weapons may not still kill us all, but 80 years later we’re still here.)
posted by Lemkin at 6:12 AM on July 5 [4 favorites]
100%.
This happened with H. G. Wells too. He was 48 when he imagined the possibility of atomic weapons, and 79 when we made his dream a horrifying reality. He then had only a year to live. So it was natural when he projected his own doom on the rest of us by predicting apocalypse. (Not that nuclear weapons may not still kill us all, but 80 years later we’re still here.)
posted by Lemkin at 6:12 AM on July 5 [4 favorites]
Thunberg: "too young; what can she know?" [not in this thread, probably not in MeFi, but common currency elsewhere]
Suzuki: "too old; projecting his own doom."
It appears that the world is in need of the Goldilocks climatologist, perhaps one born close to 1970.
Seriously though, he has children and grandchildren, so someone saying that he no longer has skin in the game is revealing more about themselves, than they are about Suzuki.
"When Peter talks about Paul, you learn more about Peter than you do about Paul".
posted by BCMagee at 7:10 AM on July 5 [21 favorites]
Suzuki: "too old; projecting his own doom."
It appears that the world is in need of the Goldilocks climatologist, perhaps one born close to 1970.
Seriously though, he has children and grandchildren, so someone saying that he no longer has skin in the game is revealing more about themselves, than they are about Suzuki.
"When Peter talks about Paul, you learn more about Peter than you do about Paul".
posted by BCMagee at 7:10 AM on July 5 [21 favorites]
"Then I guess there's only one thing to do: Win the whole fuckin' thing."
posted by ob1quixote at 7:39 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
posted by ob1quixote at 7:39 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
On planetary boundaries, the six already crossed are climate change, biogeochemical flows in the nitrogen cycle, excess global freshwater use, land system change, the erosion of biosphere integrity, and chemical pollution. Ocean acidification is the one that was crossed recently (probably), which seems to have prompted Suzuki’s despair. Atmospheric aerosol loading and stratospheric ozone depletion are the two boundaries not yet crossed.
posted by Phanx at 7:40 AM on July 5 [6 favorites]
posted by Phanx at 7:40 AM on July 5 [6 favorites]
I've known it was too late ever since Al Gore showed me the line chart. Understood! It's overwhelmingly sad sometimes but that's the reality.
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:04 AM on July 5 [2 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:04 AM on July 5 [2 favorites]
Suzuki's statement breaks my heart. He seems to be heading into Dark Mountain territory.
In my own work on this, things look bleak. For years I've been trying to get academia to take climate action. I've written a scholarly book on it (first monograph on the topic, as far as I can tell), given plenty of talks in person and online, hosted multiple sessions of my video program, met with thousands of academics (presidents, provosts, boards, professors, staff, students; publishers, foundation officers, government officials, food service companies, architects), created all kinds of social media content, networked like mad. I haven't seen climate change denial, but dozens of reasons for academia to do nothing more: exhaustion, resentment of being asked to fly less (this is where I get the most resistance), people being nervous about political blowback, a sense of powerlessness in the face of a vast problem. Only a few small populations are eager to act: traditional-age students; faculty already working professionally in the area (Earth science, etc); architects and campus planners (because they have to look ahead <>30 years and account for global warming).
That was before Trump's reelection. Shortly after his inauguration I was in a National Academies meeting in DC, talking about how to do this work. Right after we literally walked down the street to an EPA protest. But otherwise... academics are often more scared, more eager to keep their heads down. Every story of a university caving into Trump, a president decapitated, another massive federal cut drives them even further into staying silent. I've been told by a good number of well meaning colleagues around the world to cut down on my climate work, to focus on other issues I'm known for. "It's too risky," they say.
There are exceptions. Some professors are teaching the subject across the curriculum (climate change is the new liberal arts, I say). Architects quietly incorporate higher temperatures, more storms, etc. into building designs. And traditional age students are generally hungry for more climate study, more climate service learning, internships, etc. I network with these... quietly.
That's academia. Some academics have the formal protection of tenure as a shield, which can let them do this work. We all have access to that precious space and time where we can think boldly and investigate. If we're not going to take the lead here - to produce more research, to teach more, to redesign our campus operations, to do more public scholarship - and Suzuki has gone bleak, who else is going to?
posted by doctornemo at 8:11 AM on July 5 [17 favorites]
In my own work on this, things look bleak. For years I've been trying to get academia to take climate action. I've written a scholarly book on it (first monograph on the topic, as far as I can tell), given plenty of talks in person and online, hosted multiple sessions of my video program, met with thousands of academics (presidents, provosts, boards, professors, staff, students; publishers, foundation officers, government officials, food service companies, architects), created all kinds of social media content, networked like mad. I haven't seen climate change denial, but dozens of reasons for academia to do nothing more: exhaustion, resentment of being asked to fly less (this is where I get the most resistance), people being nervous about political blowback, a sense of powerlessness in the face of a vast problem. Only a few small populations are eager to act: traditional-age students; faculty already working professionally in the area (Earth science, etc); architects and campus planners (because they have to look ahead <>30 years and account for global warming).
That was before Trump's reelection. Shortly after his inauguration I was in a National Academies meeting in DC, talking about how to do this work. Right after we literally walked down the street to an EPA protest. But otherwise... academics are often more scared, more eager to keep their heads down. Every story of a university caving into Trump, a president decapitated, another massive federal cut drives them even further into staying silent. I've been told by a good number of well meaning colleagues around the world to cut down on my climate work, to focus on other issues I'm known for. "It's too risky," they say.
There are exceptions. Some professors are teaching the subject across the curriculum (climate change is the new liberal arts, I say). Architects quietly incorporate higher temperatures, more storms, etc. into building designs. And traditional age students are generally hungry for more climate study, more climate service learning, internships, etc. I network with these... quietly.
That's academia. Some academics have the formal protection of tenure as a shield, which can let them do this work. We all have access to that precious space and time where we can think boldly and investigate. If we're not going to take the lead here - to produce more research, to teach more, to redesign our campus operations, to do more public scholarship - and Suzuki has gone bleak, who else is going to?
posted by doctornemo at 8:11 AM on July 5 [17 favorites]
His conclusion? “We need revolution. Can you have a peaceful revolution? I don’t know.”
Fascinating to me that everyone's ignoring this part. It's not over. He says it right there. It's only over for those who would choose death over radicalism.
Mark Fisher is vindicated yet again: easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.
Kill your hope, yes: kill your hope to be saved by the systems you have always known. Then embrace revolutionary leftism.
Because the tide of blood is here.
posted by aintnolobos at 8:35 AM on July 5 [16 favorites]
Fascinating to me that everyone's ignoring this part. It's not over. He says it right there. It's only over for those who would choose death over radicalism.
Mark Fisher is vindicated yet again: easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.
Kill your hope, yes: kill your hope to be saved by the systems you have always known. Then embrace revolutionary leftism.
Because the tide of blood is here.
posted by aintnolobos at 8:35 AM on July 5 [16 favorites]
Some people are going to die. Is it going to be hundreds of millions of commoners or a thousand billionaires. Get your trolleys rolling.
posted by seanmpuckett at 8:45 AM on July 5 [4 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 8:45 AM on July 5 [4 favorites]
I was a climate activist for about 20 years and have worked in ecological things for at least 35 years. Short of an unforeseen miracle (and I don't hit the hopium pipe anymore), I am in agreement that human civilization as we know it is almost done. One part that doesn't get much airtime is the incredible onslaught of invasive species (flora and fauna) as humans and goods keep moving around the planet, ecological systems are decimated, and climate change makes golden opportunities for non native species to move in a colonize rapidly.
I feel fortunate to be alive during an era of abundance (I am a middle class white American), and constantly astonished at the speed of relentless decimation combined with the abundance of excuses that humanity keeps throwing out--this is our shared reality.
posted by tarantula at 9:19 AM on July 5 [10 favorites]
I feel fortunate to be alive during an era of abundance (I am a middle class white American), and constantly astonished at the speed of relentless decimation combined with the abundance of excuses that humanity keeps throwing out--this is our shared reality.
posted by tarantula at 9:19 AM on July 5 [10 favorites]
I'm currently re-reading Kim Stanley Robinson 's "Ministry for the Future". Despite the climate calamaties that are described, the book still has a tone of optimism, that in the face of the last few years, seems naive now.
For a little over a year, I've lost hope for seeing significant changes or solutions to the climate crisis, as well as in resolving international conflicts, which I believe are related.
The well-off already understand that Bad Times are coming, and, besides grasping for all the short-term boosts they can, like tax cuts, they are also planning for their security. They are backing populist puppets who are dismantling the institutions and norms of democracy, to remove any checks on their power and autonomy. The general public in the west have had a growing sense of unease, from economic shocks and the end of the belief that kids would always do better than their parents. And from worries about the climate, the pandemic, conflicts. The autocrats play on this unease by holding up scapegoats (immigrants, "woke", etc ), offering magical remedies (eg expelling migrants, adding tariffs), and promising, well, Make $country Great Again. Besides MAGA, Brexit was also an example of this kind of pitch. Hungary, Italy, AfD in Germany. Etc.
I dont believe that human civilization is done. But a serious decline seems inevitable. For most of us in the developed, temperate countries of the West, I suspect we will just roll with it. Bad things will happen, there will be big catastrophes, (and i guess its tasteless to mention climate change while the impact of the tragic Texas flood is still unfolding) but the majority of us will just shake our heads and tighten our belts another notch. The less-affluent tropical and/or coastal countries are going to get pummeled, of course, but by then we will have finished putting in moats and turning away migrants and refugees. From Russia invading Ukraine, genocide of Palestinians, the deterioration of Haiti, assault on Iran, even down to masked ICE goons, it seems that war and brutality are again on the menu. Military budgets are doubling and tripling.
I've said it before: some days I'm glad I'm old. But I will try to keep looking for small flames of hope.
posted by Artful Codger at 10:02 AM on July 5 [8 favorites]
For a little over a year, I've lost hope for seeing significant changes or solutions to the climate crisis, as well as in resolving international conflicts, which I believe are related.
The well-off already understand that Bad Times are coming, and, besides grasping for all the short-term boosts they can, like tax cuts, they are also planning for their security. They are backing populist puppets who are dismantling the institutions and norms of democracy, to remove any checks on their power and autonomy. The general public in the west have had a growing sense of unease, from economic shocks and the end of the belief that kids would always do better than their parents. And from worries about the climate, the pandemic, conflicts. The autocrats play on this unease by holding up scapegoats (immigrants, "woke", etc ), offering magical remedies (eg expelling migrants, adding tariffs), and promising, well, Make $country Great Again. Besides MAGA, Brexit was also an example of this kind of pitch. Hungary, Italy, AfD in Germany. Etc.
I dont believe that human civilization is done. But a serious decline seems inevitable. For most of us in the developed, temperate countries of the West, I suspect we will just roll with it. Bad things will happen, there will be big catastrophes, (and i guess its tasteless to mention climate change while the impact of the tragic Texas flood is still unfolding) but the majority of us will just shake our heads and tighten our belts another notch. The less-affluent tropical and/or coastal countries are going to get pummeled, of course, but by then we will have finished putting in moats and turning away migrants and refugees. From Russia invading Ukraine, genocide of Palestinians, the deterioration of Haiti, assault on Iran, even down to masked ICE goons, it seems that war and brutality are again on the menu. Military budgets are doubling and tripling.
I've said it before: some days I'm glad I'm old. But I will try to keep looking for small flames of hope.
posted by Artful Codger at 10:02 AM on July 5 [8 favorites]
Some people are going to die.
One part of the problem is that we haven't successfully told the climate story to this level. For may people global warming looks like something in the far off distance - I can't tell you how many folks I've talked with, card carrying Democrats in the US and similar elsewhere, who tell me with some form of relief that they'll be dead before the crisis truly hits. So many people spend most of their time in a very short term horizon: this year, this quarter.
Moreover, it looks less dangerous to many folks. Sea level rise of a foot in a couple of decades? Nothing to worry about.
It also looks like spectacle. A giant hurricane demolishes a city? That's exciting tv news! And it happens elsewhere, not to me. And maybe it's enjoyable, not just for the thrill but for a sense of harming someone who deserves it.
Storytelling: climate fiction in novels has been booming in number and creativity, but I don't know how many people read these books. There's very little tv, aside from the criminally underseen Extrapolations. There isn't much cinema. Some tabletop games. A few computer games. Journalism is backing away from the topic. We need to ramp up the storytelling, among other things.
posted by doctornemo at 10:06 AM on July 5 [6 favorites]
One part of the problem is that we haven't successfully told the climate story to this level. For may people global warming looks like something in the far off distance - I can't tell you how many folks I've talked with, card carrying Democrats in the US and similar elsewhere, who tell me with some form of relief that they'll be dead before the crisis truly hits. So many people spend most of their time in a very short term horizon: this year, this quarter.
Moreover, it looks less dangerous to many folks. Sea level rise of a foot in a couple of decades? Nothing to worry about.
It also looks like spectacle. A giant hurricane demolishes a city? That's exciting tv news! And it happens elsewhere, not to me. And maybe it's enjoyable, not just for the thrill but for a sense of harming someone who deserves it.
Storytelling: climate fiction in novels has been booming in number and creativity, but I don't know how many people read these books. There's very little tv, aside from the criminally underseen Extrapolations. There isn't much cinema. Some tabletop games. A few computer games. Journalism is backing away from the topic. We need to ramp up the storytelling, among other things.
posted by doctornemo at 10:06 AM on July 5 [6 favorites]
It is amazing how climate change concern vanished so quickly once the pandemic and housing crises hit Canada. One day we were all worried about the kinds of straws we used and the next we worried about whether we would have a roof over our heads.
But the pandemic sealed our fate. Many of our neighbours refused to even wear a paper mask to protect themselves and their neighbours. What are the chances you can persuade such a person to give up their ICE vehicles and their vacation homes? The government had a golden opportunity to use the crisis to forge new, more climate-friendly policies and economies. Instead, it felt compelled to compromise with the most aggressively stupid and selfish sector of the population.
Cars and massive living are just too central to people's self-image. I live in a fairly rare kind of town, one where private vehicles are completely unnecessary and in fact a PITA to operate. Yet most people own the biggest vehicle that they can finance. I still can't believe that people would rather see their grandchildren burn than reduce their lifestyles by one iota.
posted by SnowRottie at 11:41 AM on July 5 [7 favorites]
But the pandemic sealed our fate. Many of our neighbours refused to even wear a paper mask to protect themselves and their neighbours. What are the chances you can persuade such a person to give up their ICE vehicles and their vacation homes? The government had a golden opportunity to use the crisis to forge new, more climate-friendly policies and economies. Instead, it felt compelled to compromise with the most aggressively stupid and selfish sector of the population.
Cars and massive living are just too central to people's self-image. I live in a fairly rare kind of town, one where private vehicles are completely unnecessary and in fact a PITA to operate. Yet most people own the biggest vehicle that they can finance. I still can't believe that people would rather see their grandchildren burn than reduce their lifestyles by one iota.
posted by SnowRottie at 11:41 AM on July 5 [7 favorites]
As i've said for 20 years now: I put my faith in the K-Pg boundary. Between 75-90% of all species on Earth were destroyed in the associated extinction event, including basically every non-aquatic tetrapod over 30kg.
We can certainly destroy ourselves—and i have long thought that's the best possible outcome, tbh—but the planet will recover. It's recovered from worse.
posted by adrienneleigh at 12:13 PM on July 5 [1 favorite]
We can certainly destroy ourselves—and i have long thought that's the best possible outcome, tbh—but the planet will recover. It's recovered from worse.
posted by adrienneleigh at 12:13 PM on July 5 [1 favorite]
how climate change concern vanished so quickly once the pandemic and housing crises hit
I think that's right for many areas. Andreas Malm has a good interview about how COVID sapped climate crisis action.
posted by doctornemo at 12:24 PM on July 5 [2 favorites]
I think that's right for many areas. Andreas Malm has a good interview about how COVID sapped climate crisis action.
posted by doctornemo at 12:24 PM on July 5 [2 favorites]
I sure hope he’s wrong. But the odds are against that.
posted by runningdogofcapitalism at 12:39 PM on July 5 [1 favorite]
posted by runningdogofcapitalism at 12:39 PM on July 5 [1 favorite]
At the height of the early pandemic, when gas prices had gone way down and global shipping was grinding to a halt, I think the world got the closest glimpse of the kind of sacrifice that would be necessary to make a real impact on climate change. And, like we saw with COVID, the people who stood to lose the most financially from adequately tackling the problem immediately set out to make damn sure that Status Quo prevailed.
So yeah, I feel like COVID may have been our last exit on the highway, with a bunch of *DANGER: ROAD OUT AHEAD* signs, and we slowed down juuuuust a little bit and almost put the turn signal on, but then Capitalism grabbed the wheel and dropped a brick on the gas pedal.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 12:51 PM on July 5 [11 favorites]
So yeah, I feel like COVID may have been our last exit on the highway, with a bunch of *DANGER: ROAD OUT AHEAD* signs, and we slowed down juuuuust a little bit and almost put the turn signal on, but then Capitalism grabbed the wheel and dropped a brick on the gas pedal.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 12:51 PM on July 5 [11 favorites]
Yes exactly beryllium etc, we've created a massive problem, but we could still avoid a much bigger problems, and this statement shall remain true.
Frowner> it's much better that humans cease and things lie fallow until other species can evolve.
No. Any life form should similarly expand until stopped by external forces. If lower intelligence, then an ecosystem can more easily constrain them, but imho that's a nonsensical goal. A similarly intelligent life form might never reemerge, ala the peacock tail theory that intelligence arose from sexual selection run amok, but..
If some similarly intelligent life form reemerged, then we should expect they too expand until stopped by external forces, simply because they're subject whatever mathematics governs evolution, both biological and cultural. If anything, we'd maybe judge them much worse than ourselves, becuase the "carbon pulse" enabled exploring anomalously many notions of "justice". If for example, they evolve in a hotter world having much less wood, then they maybe much more locked into slavery.
We are not bad per se, but we are unconstrained, and worse we all collaborate in one global economy that maximizes human consumption, and that is a major problem for all species including ours. There is no skynet or airborne rabies or aliens coming to constrain us, but we're still capable of constraining ourselves through real physical conflicts, just not so long as we collaborate in one global economy.
We've some real hopeful signs lately, a few years ago nations never blow up refineries, but today nations do target refineries: Israel left with no refineries operating, surging fuel deficit after Iranian strikes. Israel hit the world’s largest natural gas field and other key Iranian energy facilities, in a break from the past. Every Russian oil refinery attacked by Ukrainian drones, mapped.
As real action, we should've climate education in schools for military & intelligence officers in tropical & subtropical nations, so places like Chulachomklao in Thailand, and all of the many such schools across India, China, Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, etc.
seanmpuckett> Some people are going to die.
I always quote Will Steffen that +4°C means a world carrying capacity around 1 billion, and uninhabitable tropics.
posted by jeffburdges at 12:58 PM on July 5 [2 favorites]
Frowner> it's much better that humans cease and things lie fallow until other species can evolve.
No. Any life form should similarly expand until stopped by external forces. If lower intelligence, then an ecosystem can more easily constrain them, but imho that's a nonsensical goal. A similarly intelligent life form might never reemerge, ala the peacock tail theory that intelligence arose from sexual selection run amok, but..
If some similarly intelligent life form reemerged, then we should expect they too expand until stopped by external forces, simply because they're subject whatever mathematics governs evolution, both biological and cultural. If anything, we'd maybe judge them much worse than ourselves, becuase the "carbon pulse" enabled exploring anomalously many notions of "justice". If for example, they evolve in a hotter world having much less wood, then they maybe much more locked into slavery.
We are not bad per se, but we are unconstrained, and worse we all collaborate in one global economy that maximizes human consumption, and that is a major problem for all species including ours. There is no skynet or airborne rabies or aliens coming to constrain us, but we're still capable of constraining ourselves through real physical conflicts, just not so long as we collaborate in one global economy.
We've some real hopeful signs lately, a few years ago nations never blow up refineries, but today nations do target refineries: Israel left with no refineries operating, surging fuel deficit after Iranian strikes. Israel hit the world’s largest natural gas field and other key Iranian energy facilities, in a break from the past. Every Russian oil refinery attacked by Ukrainian drones, mapped.
As real action, we should've climate education in schools for military & intelligence officers in tropical & subtropical nations, so places like Chulachomklao in Thailand, and all of the many such schools across India, China, Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, etc.
seanmpuckett> Some people are going to die.
I always quote Will Steffen that +4°C means a world carrying capacity around 1 billion, and uninhabitable tropics.
posted by jeffburdges at 12:58 PM on July 5 [2 favorites]
I enjoyed the articles overall, but they hit many deeply flawed "doomer" trops, including the 1988 Toronto conference "where world leaders concluded climate change was humanity’s second-greatest threat after nuclear war."
A nuclear war might threaten you personally, based on where you live, or your lifestyle, but nuclear war does not even register as a threat once planetary boundaries come up. Nuclear winter is bullshit. If you reverse Own Toons' acerage vs Mt estimates, them the 2023 wildfires in Canada resembled a nuclear war of 2000 Mt, and yes they blotted out the sun over NYC for a week or two.
A nuclear war would be desirable if it'd save us from climate change, or from any of the even worse planetary boundaries, but unfortunately I'd think that averting climate change requires lower level sustained conflict and sabatoge. You should not need nukes to blow up refineries and nukes seem useless for killing cattle en mass.
posted by jeffburdges at 1:07 PM on July 5 [1 favorite]
A nuclear war might threaten you personally, based on where you live, or your lifestyle, but nuclear war does not even register as a threat once planetary boundaries come up. Nuclear winter is bullshit. If you reverse Own Toons' acerage vs Mt estimates, them the 2023 wildfires in Canada resembled a nuclear war of 2000 Mt, and yes they blotted out the sun over NYC for a week or two.
A nuclear war would be desirable if it'd save us from climate change, or from any of the even worse planetary boundaries, but unfortunately I'd think that averting climate change requires lower level sustained conflict and sabatoge. You should not need nukes to blow up refineries and nukes seem useless for killing cattle en mass.
posted by jeffburdges at 1:07 PM on July 5 [1 favorite]
Humans are like rabbits who have dedicated themselves to producing more carrots as a solution to rabbit reproduction. The danger lies in the cultural regression of sticking to past methods and ignoring emerging threats. It is only progress for carrot culture, if one were a carrot.
posted by Brian B. at 2:14 PM on July 5 [1 favorite]
posted by Brian B. at 2:14 PM on July 5 [1 favorite]
Here's what's keeping me going back to work every week--I can share headlines like these:
Ireland joins Europe's coal-free nations with closure of Clare plant
Seine reopens to Paris swimmers after century-long ban
I have to keep celebrating every victory we have and keep believing it's not too late.
posted by hydropsyche at 2:52 PM on July 5 [9 favorites]
Ireland joins Europe's coal-free nations with closure of Clare plant
Seine reopens to Paris swimmers after century-long ban
I have to keep celebrating every victory we have and keep believing it's not too late.
posted by hydropsyche at 2:52 PM on July 5 [9 favorites]
Recently I've been thinking of the psychological wedgie I got from growing up in the cold War, and how that's a cousin to the psychological weight of dealing with climate change. It's something I have also been talking about with others, and just yesterday someone observed that "somehow you made it okay, because you're doing things like working in this community garden or writing a blog or engaging with your neighbors. How did you end up okay?"
That question brought me up short and I said I didn't know. I thought about it overnight, and finally came up with an answer: it's a Muslim proverb that goes something like, "if the End Times come and you're holding a seedling in your hand, you should still go ahead and plant it."
I internalized that as: maybe not everything you do is going to have a huge impact, and it may not finish in time and it may only affect your one small corner. But if that makes the light in that one small corner burn a little brighter for a little longer - that's good, yeah?
Maybe we are past the point where we can stop damage from happening at all. We can still do what we can to reduce that damage, even if all we have energy for is just our one little corner. There are other people in that corner with you and the work you did to improve it will not go unnoticed and will not be wasted.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:11 PM on July 5 [4 favorites]
That question brought me up short and I said I didn't know. I thought about it overnight, and finally came up with an answer: it's a Muslim proverb that goes something like, "if the End Times come and you're holding a seedling in your hand, you should still go ahead and plant it."
I internalized that as: maybe not everything you do is going to have a huge impact, and it may not finish in time and it may only affect your one small corner. But if that makes the light in that one small corner burn a little brighter for a little longer - that's good, yeah?
Maybe we are past the point where we can stop damage from happening at all. We can still do what we can to reduce that damage, even if all we have energy for is just our one little corner. There are other people in that corner with you and the work you did to improve it will not go unnoticed and will not be wasted.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:11 PM on July 5 [4 favorites]
Conclusions like this remind me of an old proverb:
An old man was walking the beach one day and came across a scene of thousands of starfish that had washed up and were drying out, destined to die.
In the midst of this a little girl was picking up starfish one by one and flinging them into the ocean. “What are you doing?” He asked. You’ll never make a difference because there are too many of them.”
She bent down quietly and picked up another one and simply replied, “Oh, I just like throwing them.”
posted by lalochezia at 4:10 PM on July 5 [3 favorites]
An old man was walking the beach one day and came across a scene of thousands of starfish that had washed up and were drying out, destined to die.
In the midst of this a little girl was picking up starfish one by one and flinging them into the ocean. “What are you doing?” He asked. You’ll never make a difference because there are too many of them.”
She bent down quietly and picked up another one and simply replied, “Oh, I just like throwing them.”
posted by lalochezia at 4:10 PM on July 5 [3 favorites]
The proper response to someone claiming "it's too late" is: Too late for what?
These "nine boundaries" are human-defined metrics.
There is a lot of bad climate stuff almost certainly baked in at this point.
But I follow the energy industry for my job. The last 6 months have been brutal in terms of watching Biden's climate agenda -- the most sweeping and progressive in world history -- sabotaged by Trump and the GOP. However, I'm also watching trends like these:
- The cost of solar generation-plus-battery storage systems has fallen 43% since 2019.
- That cost fell 22% just last year, and will likely fall by the same this year.
- Solar plus storage is now cheaper than coal or nuclear power in the U.S.
More stats:
- Solar panel prices have fallen by 90% in the last decade, as have battery prices.
- Onshore wind power has gotten 70% cheaper in the same period.
A lot of fossil fuel infrastructure is going to keep being used for a while because of sunk costs, and because of political shenanigans. But if the trendlines above continue, before long, it'll be cheaper to build new renewable energy generation than to keep operating dirty legacy technology. Some analyses say we've already reached that point.
So: Is all this happening "fast enough"? Or are we "too late"? Again, the questions are: Fast enough for what? Too late for what? These changes are sweeping the world rapidly, despite many people not being aware of it. They will continue to accelerate, as will the adoption of EVs and the electrification of all kinds of transport modes and industries.
New battery chemistries, carbon capture technologies, and other decarbonization mechanisms are being developed and brought to market every year. It's a turbulent time. We don't know how much impact any one of these technologies will have. We can't say whether, taken altogether, they will be "enough". But it seems extremely foolish, IMO, to assume that they definitely won't be.
TLDR: "Too late"? Too soon to tell.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 5:28 PM on July 5 [3 favorites]
These "nine boundaries" are human-defined metrics.
There is a lot of bad climate stuff almost certainly baked in at this point.
But I follow the energy industry for my job. The last 6 months have been brutal in terms of watching Biden's climate agenda -- the most sweeping and progressive in world history -- sabotaged by Trump and the GOP. However, I'm also watching trends like these:
- The cost of solar generation-plus-battery storage systems has fallen 43% since 2019.
- That cost fell 22% just last year, and will likely fall by the same this year.
- Solar plus storage is now cheaper than coal or nuclear power in the U.S.
More stats:
- Solar panel prices have fallen by 90% in the last decade, as have battery prices.
- Onshore wind power has gotten 70% cheaper in the same period.
A lot of fossil fuel infrastructure is going to keep being used for a while because of sunk costs, and because of political shenanigans. But if the trendlines above continue, before long, it'll be cheaper to build new renewable energy generation than to keep operating dirty legacy technology. Some analyses say we've already reached that point.
So: Is all this happening "fast enough"? Or are we "too late"? Again, the questions are: Fast enough for what? Too late for what? These changes are sweeping the world rapidly, despite many people not being aware of it. They will continue to accelerate, as will the adoption of EVs and the electrification of all kinds of transport modes and industries.
New battery chemistries, carbon capture technologies, and other decarbonization mechanisms are being developed and brought to market every year. It's a turbulent time. We don't know how much impact any one of these technologies will have. We can't say whether, taken altogether, they will be "enough". But it seems extremely foolish, IMO, to assume that they definitely won't be.
TLDR: "Too late"? Too soon to tell.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 5:28 PM on July 5 [3 favorites]
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I'm increasingly cynical and frustrated, but I can't imagine how frustrating it must be to be a Dr Suzuki or a naturalist of his calibre. The same patient explanations, over and over, for decades, and then nothing.
posted by Jilder at 1:02 AM on July 5 [21 favorites]